Well, second attempt at break out failed - what next?
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From a weekly perspective, ACW had a big drop, moved from 4 to 3. Volumes very high. So not a good week.
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So what is happening? My last post was couple of weeks back. That time it was making second attempt to break out of 4s. First attempt fizzled out at 4, dropped to 3.3. This time it reached higher, 4.2, so was looking good. But all was lost on Tuesday, a drop to 3.2, nullifying the break that was happening. Same day news of buy back, but number to be bought was so small that I am not sure if that is the reason. Last 3 days has been a test whether 2.9 will hold. All 3 days it played there. It has held it, for now.
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So why did the break fail? Not sure. As I had been asking before, whether we can get some news which can sustain a very big rise. Reading thru the responses, I felt it was possibly not in near future. So I felt the play was more technicals and sometimes, some big entities like to take position. They can sustain a rise. I was hoping for that. But doesn't look like.
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Personally, I had written that when it came back from 3.3 to make another attempt at 4s and above, I had picked up my shares at average 3.6. I got out at near break even when it didn't look like getting sustained. My previous 2 plays were from mid 2s to mid 3s. Not sure if another such play coming next.
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So what could happen next week? The strong play that was happening for last few weeks, there is a feeling that it has lost momentum for now. Its still trying to hold 3, firmly. It has done so. Two challenges, first to get over 3.5, next to get over 4 and stay over 4 for sometime. On downside, a play around mid 2s could happen again, based on previous pattern. I am not sure, but watching for now. Lets hope it is the former and a 3rd attempt to 4s. All the best.
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