Guidance of "20-25% inclusive Conject" is actually guidance of 45-50% revenue growth this FY, which is fast by any standard. They're then guiding "20-25%" indefinitely after that. They would have done better just to say: "FY17 = $180-$187m = 45-50%. Constant currency."
The market is saying at these prices - same share price now as when Conject deal announced in March - they're going to miss guidance at bottom end range this FY, and not achieve even 20% p.a. after that. There is a slight headwind in the GBP decline against AUD since Brexit but this will effect costs as well as revenues and wash out.
Market saying now strategic and operational gains from Conject - nope. Network impact of Fluor enterprise and Mobil Exxon enterprise deals have been forgotten in doubt. Asian growth flagged at the Investor Day - forgotten. Worksite / cost control rollout (happening now) totally forgotten. Opportunities for other acquisitions / bolt-ons, forgotten too. It's sentiment rather than substance - but over the short term, 3-6 months, sentiment rules - see the chart.
ACX Price at posting:
$5.35 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
