ACX 0.00% $7.79 aconex limited

The current PE is a misleading statistic for ACX. They have a...

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    The current PE is a misleading statistic for ACX. They have a highly profitable ANZ business already (~40% EBITDA margins), which is still growing, and they are replicating it reinvesting in much bigger global markets and are the market leader in each of these markets. So if you disaggregate this, you have a modest PE and high-growth business in Australia and negative PE but even higher growth businesses internationally. There is no reason to focus on the aggregated earnings /PE, it doesn't matter and won't matter for years until the international businesses are more mature. Focus on PE is superficial and shows lack understanding the business model. Cash flow positive, no debt, plenty cash in the bank means they can chart their own course in building the business.

    Excellent link from @hotcoppa explaining how Fidelity think about investing in volatility, and about ACX in particular. I liked the explanation of the phases this kind of business: 1) building a technology 2) building a network 3) monetising the network and comparison with REA, FB, GOOG and AMZN, all of which had highly volatile rides on their way to success. The point is ACX at latter stage of phase 2) for most of their business (except ANZ market). Based on their commentary, Fidelity think ACX is going to be a very big business. Though they comment that valuation is "being checked", which often happens even in most prospective stocks in between reporting periods. ACX went down into high $3s in February this year, which turned out to be great time to buy. A lot of progress since then, e.g. Conject, Fluor, Exxon Mobil, ConnectedCost roll-out, etc - and almost 1/2 way through FY17 now. Won't try and tip a bottom here, could always go bit lower, but do agree with Fidelity it's going to be a very big business over the next few years and then worth many multiples current valuation. Some longs with high conviction and multi-year view actually hope for significant price falls to buy some more along the way.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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