MSV 2.27% 43.0¢ mitchell services limited

Sounds like you have a good handle on things.You're right with...

  1. 1,223 Posts.
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    Sounds like you have a good handle on things.You're right with respect to cash flow & debt. While I'd agree the impaired contract is immaterial in the long run, it's very material right now. That's $9.6million on a market cap of $100million at the time of disclosure which should have gone straight to the bottom line. That's material and rightfully puts a red mark against management/the board particularly with respect to admissions/clarity. As you well know, markets dislike uncertainty and this whole fiasco has served up uncertainty in spades. They need to win confidence back with a few solid quarters.If guidance as to full rig utilization does unfold this calendar year and they do not increase capex on more rig purchases, you'd see a huge improvement on the balance sheet & very quickly. On my numbers I'd suggest nil debt is achievable by July next year IF full fleet utilization occurs & that's without relying on clawing back anything from court proceedings. That's the sort of leverage the business is capable of. Check past quarterlies as the company has grown to verify this for yourself. However, if margins squeeze higher with industry tightness on rigs (I think they will as a large competitor eludes to rigs being forward booked without firm drilling plans just to get rig access) then investment in further kit might be on the cards. Happy to hear alternative views but that's the basis for my investment & why I see this doing well going forward provided the macro environment stays accommodative/ benign
 
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