This is a good read and succinctly summarized the reason I’m invested in Lynas. Their EV sales growth forecast may seem bullish, but I think it the growth rate will be 1.5-2x faster, than their model for two reasons. First, they assume the CAGR to be lower than it is now, which is not expected for a disruptive product on S-curve growth. Second, BEVs are forecast to become less expensive than ICE within two years. They forecast REE demand outstripping supply 10 years from now. If EV sales double every 2 years as they are now, I expect pressure on REE prices to follow well before that.
This is a good read and succinctly summarized the reason I’m...
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