ADAPT Revenue chart

I have made a chart and I thought others might be interested. You can't just look at this chart though - you have to understand the assumptions and limitations of what is being presented.

I have used ADAPT revenue going back as far as I could (Sep Quarter 2015) and the first four quarters are actually derived from 6 monthly data as that is all that was available (6 months divided by 2). I then asked excel to forecast a simple linear and non linear trend. They are depicted below.

My concern is that the linear forecast is too slow, and the non-linear trendline shows that we are reducing growth (no one is suggesting it will go down - that's not the point). This is clearly not new information, and we have all been waiting for a structural shift in the growth rates of ADAPT. But we are yet to see it.

The assumption has always been that there will be a kick up in sales which will show exponential growth in ADAPT. I hope that we can see that soon. There are of course other irons in the fire, such as TAVR , 3D which could provide the shift we have been looking for, or something surprising from the vax. But so far there is (IMO) no evidence of the shift we have all been waiting for.

ADAPT Revenue