$600K per aircraft savingDelta has 200 737's $120M per year...

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Xhosa12345

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01/04/22

15:17

Post #: 60584310
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Originally posted by pinch2020: ↑

This is from IVHM- and the Path forward.

Courtesy: David Piotrowski

Applying 5987 Process to Delta’s B737 APB Application
Checklist question Explanation

1
What protection or benefit will the system provide?

Will provide crack detection without onerous access requirements (3-5 days out of service Special Schedule reduced down to ~1 hour).

2
What is the limitation of the current state or criticality of the failure effect?

AD 2016-18-15 (SB 737-53A1248) is mandated for crack detection via eddy current on certain fasteners of the APB; Structural Health Monitoring will be an AMOC to the required inspections

3
How is the impending failure detected, and is there sufficient time to mitigate it?

Sensor is designed (ring around fastener) and placed to intercept crack with the same (or better)
probability of detection (POD) crack length as Eddy Current.

4
What is the required detection success rate?

Same (or better) probability of detection (POD) crack length as Eddy Current.

5
What frequency of automated checks is needed to ensure the required success rate?

Same as the scheduled task; Threshold and repetitive intervals were determined by OEM SB. Frequent interval (1200 cycles) means Special Scheduling of aircraft to Hangar

6
Can any existing checks, constraints, and/or actions be removed?

SHM will be used to replace the eddy current inspection; Access requirements (and possible associated damage) avoided

7
Have all mitigations to support the credit been evaluated?

Yes; Implemented into Boeing manuals and previous economic SB

8
What is the cost versus benefits?

Going from 3-5 days out of service annually to ~1 hour translates into annual benefit of $600K per aircraft

9
Should the maintenance credit process proceed?

Yes; However, requires AMOC to AD 2016-18-15

10
Is there a plan to ensure that the credit is improved and updated for technology and/or system configuration changes?

Yes, fully supported by Structural Monitoring Systems. Improving the credit (i.e., increasing intervals) is
unlikely near-term, but possible with additional acceptance into fatigue & damage tolerance community.
This would lead to tangible maintenance credits.

Expand

$600K per aircraft saving
Delta has 200 737's
$120M per year savings, plus being perceived 'safer'

5-10% for SMN for the privilege (per year)

PE of say 10

say lowballing goes worth about 60M market cap

so back to somewhere hopefully about 50c to $1 per airline to the SP (hopefully ultra conservatively)

time to deliver boys and girls at SMN...you have the cash now.

gltah
imo.

SMN Price at posting: 89.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
7 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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