Hey,
Just trying to do some more research and after some help from others that may have already done similar research.
I am trying to work out what i think the total addressable market is for Novosorb alone (ignoring Hernia/Breast Products for now)
at the moment I am looking at it like this and would love some thoughts and guidance who anyone who looks at this sort of stuff regularly if i am going about this sort of thing the right way.
Burns Addressable Market
As per the link below burns market is USD 2 billion in 2019 at 6.9% CAGR putting it at roughly 3 billion by 2025.
now my attempt at a conservative assumption is that Novosorb might be usable in 1/3 of this so i am assuming a $1billion addressable market.
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/burn-care-market
Diabetic Ulcer Addressable Market
Now this is a huge market but i see Novosorb being applicable to a smaller number of cases than this total market size.
as per below link the predicted diabetic ulcer market by 2025 is 6.82billion.
so my attempt at a conservative assumption here is Novosorb might be applicable in 10% of this total in 2025, so roughly 700million.
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-diabetic-foot-ulcer-dfu-treatment-market
Conservative Total addressable market of Novosorb in 2025 roughly 1.7 Billion.(ignoring any R&D or hernia,breast,Drug eluting polymers ect)
So my next attempt at a conservative assumption is to say maybe PNV only get 20-40% of my assumed burns market
So (200-400million) and lets say they only get 10-20 % of my assumed diabetic market (70-150million million)
So from working that out.
270million to 650million revenue by 2025 on a product that has very high gross margin of 90% was it?
so trying to be conservative again, after all costs i am going to assume that 50% of sales is costs.
that puts EBITDA at 135m-325m per year (without any other products such as briefly mentioned above)
now this seems ridiculous but did the management say they expect this to only account for 10% of sales in future? or was that just burns??
anyway one more assumption. lets assume it makes up 50% of their revenue by 2025.
so roughly and with some shoddy maths thats put boards expectations by 2025 at something like 270 million to 650 million earning???
I HOPE this made sense to some people and was not to weird to follow, this is the first time i have tried to look at a company in this way and would appreciate any feedback or things that i am missing when trying to look at a company in this way...
I am aware that the biggest factor here is my assumptions which is a dangerous thing obviously but has anyone else done something similar?
Feedback welcome please.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- PNV
- Addressable Market
Addressable Market
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 27 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add PNV (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$2.59 |
Change
0.220(9.28%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.787B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.44 | $2.62 | $2.44 | $11.81M | 4.632M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
5 | 8020 | $2.58 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$2.59 | 48292 | 7 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 1154 | 2.580 |
3 | 10971 | 2.570 |
6 | 29160 | 2.560 |
4 | 14894 | 2.550 |
5 | 31063 | 2.540 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.590 | 48292 | 7 |
2.600 | 447062 | 10 |
2.610 | 45594 | 4 |
2.620 | 103681 | 6 |
2.630 | 31317 | 7 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 17/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
PNV (ASX) Chart |