While TPG have some challenges ahead I suspect the numbers to be released will be fine.
There are some negatives over the last 6 months but they may have been counter balanced by more cost cutting particularly in the iiNet part of the business, and continued customer growth, and business sales growth through its fibre products..
Some Positives that I See
Continued customer growth particularly at the budget consumer end of the market, and corporate sales through things like their fibre 400. Cherry picking buildings deploying FTTB.
NBN halting the HFC rollout means higher margins retained for existing TPG customers within HFC areas
Some negatives
NBN halting HFC rollout reduces opportunities to gain market share when switching to the NBN
Some costs from Singapore and Australia’s mobile network starting to appear on the balance sheet.
Some things to look out for
Static or reduced mobile numbers, lower ARPU per mobile user.
Lookout for lower mobile subscribers from iiNet in particular.
Cost cutting measures within iiNet are increasing or maintaining profit levels but it is also driving some higher value customers away that want a better level of service.
The TPG brand will probably show additional customers that will offset any declines or static subscriber numbers in iiNet
Postpaid to prepaid mix. More people moving to prepaid is a bad thing. I suspect this is happening.
A weaker position in mobiles does not bode well for a company that is about to launch its own mobile network.
Lower margins on fixed line products as the move to the NBN continues.
Reduced subscriber growth probably driven by NBN delay of the HFC network.
This half yearly will probably look OK.. This time next year will probably be a different story.
TPM Price at posting:
$6.13 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held