we have a timeline now (4 weeks until easing), and they also...

we have a timeline now (4 weeks until easing), and they also said expect it to be the reverse of the way in (ie retail will open first).

The federal government has formally announced a change from their pre-election policy- ie this coming period is most definitely going to be one of large fiscal stimulus even after lockdowns have eased. The Victorian government has moved first to already shore up cash for the stimulus as of yesterday.

Consumer preferences are almost certainly going to change, if they haven’t already. I think there is going to be a flow of goodwill towards Australian businesses at the expense of international competitors. As a barometer of consumer sentiment, in the Afterpay results call there was a distinct change in consumer sentiment I the first two weeks of April (back to normal).

Unfortunately due to poor health policy in North America and particularly Europe, it is going to be a lot longer before those respective economies get back to normal. Despite what vested interests might argue, people will not go out until they are confident they are not going to put themselves and their families at risk. The places that have gone hardest the earliest are going to benefit the most and suffer the least economic damage. Of these places, by far the country with the best balance sheet and most diversified industry and workforce is Australia. I know where I am willing to put my money.*

I wouldn’t bet against the US, they have a lot of problems but also have a lot of bright people. Europe unfortunately still hasn’t got its act together reflecting long-standing problems that this will go some way to fixing. The death tolls won’t lie, the places that ignore science for politics or the ‘economy’ (=vested interests) are going to be in for a world of pain. Given the feedback loop here is so acute, necessity being the mother of invention and all things, this is a major opportunity for some excesses to be reined in, let’s see what happens.