My musings on where SP may end up in coming 12 months. The below...

My musings on where SP may end up in coming 12 months. The below assumes successful trial completion and no issues with manufacturing. It also assumes a minimum of 18 million tests produced although this would mean additional manufacturing sourced from what we know currently or a licensing deal, neither of which have been confirmed. That said, I think it is far more likely we end up manufacturing >50 million tests so these numbers may well be conservative in the end.

Current manufacturing outlook – 8 million pa from Operon and 1M local (QLD grant).

Ellume sells test for $30. Assume we do something similar and we receive profit of $5 per test. $45M in revenue from Covid test assuming no licensing deals for additional manufacturing elsewhere (licensing deals have been flagged as possibility).

Assume $22.5M rev from licensed manufacturing of Covid test if only another 9 million tests are manufactured (assuming half profit amount although number of tests produced actually likely to be much higher).

Sepsis test flagged as next focus and management has stated it will be commercialised in 2021. Assume $10M rev this year if we again assume $5 profit per test and sell 2M of them. I think underdone but happy to have some conservative figures to offset some of the more bullish assumptions.

Raw materials deal with Ellume and others – ASX announcement has said no large increase in orders expected so assume modest increase in current rev from $245 per qtr to $350k per qtr = $1.4M pa.

Existing supply contract with Ellume runs out in October so renegotiation could see new more lucrative arrangement signed. Ellume product does not work without Anteo. Serum Institiute of India is just ramping up work with Anteo – could see much more revenue in joint assay development so above seems very conservative.

We have 10 currently un-named battery collaborators although some have been described as ‘large’ and ‘well known’. It is expected that in house testing of our CLA will be finished in the next couple of weeks. If results of our tests are confirmed it is very likely a deal will be signed with at least one battery manufacturer. Assume $10M revenue pa as a conservative figure.

So revenue of $88.9M.

Current cost of business is about $4M pa but these are ramping up a little (up about $220k last quarter) so lets assume costs double over the year to approx. $8M pa

This would equate to profit of $80.9M

Assuming a PE of 60 (low ball imo - refer to NAN PE of 240 as example we will likely be closer to than 60) this would equate to MC of $4.85B

Current MC = $589M @ $0.315. So SP prediction in 12 months = $2.59

The profit amount, the number of tests made and sold, how fast sepsis progresses and whether we get a battery deal this year and what that is worth, as well as what PE we attract will all adjust this figure up or down significantly but this is a good middle ground figure I think on where we are quite possibly heading