Excellent write up.The only thing missing is an extra table...

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IndexInvestor

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30/08/21

16:15

Post #: 55686412
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Originally posted by BusinessBytes01: ↑

Hi everyone,
Some thoughts about Adore Beauty:
Adore is playing in a sector that is heavily saturated and has two dominant competitors in the Australian market (Mecca and Sephora). I've had a closer look at Adore as I was curious about how Adore had grown despite the presence of Mecca and Sephora and how it can keep being a player going forward.
Where I think the company has a true advantage is its focus on skincare over makeup. As one of the first eCommerce beauty retailers with a wide range of skincare products, they have built up a loyal customer base. Adore built upon this momentum going into the pandemic and saw retention rates of 61% in FY20
It has curated a product range that is differentiated from Sephora and Mecca, and is likely to convert and retain beauty consumers who are looking for specific brands. They also have exclusivity deals with certain brands. Of course, Sephora and Mecca have the scale to build up their range, steal exclusivity deals and potentially outprice Adore in the future
They're still in their growth stage, which means they have many avenues remaining to keep expanding. Their prospectus lists many growth strategies that are pretty stock standard to beauty companies; Mecca and Sephora have already implemented all of these: launched mobile app, building a loyalty program, creating a private label. Though nothing particularly innovative, there's nothing wrong with following a tried and tested blueprint for solid growth
Adore has definitely ridden the tailwinds of COVID, and skincare particularly lends itself to online purchasing. Unlike makeup, there's no immediate feedback loop, and it takes repeated use before seeing the benefits. This removes the advantage of physical stores. Their strong performance in FY20 isn't all attributed to lockdowns however. Their sales were already up 40% PCP in Feb20, a good baseline for "post" pandemic purchasing behaviour
It's a sound company with a good product range, operations and customer growth and retention. However, its valuation (currently ~AUD470M) doesn't make sense considering its current margins and the margins of ecommerce businesses. Happy to expand on valuation thoughts if anybody's is interested. Otherwise, I've got a comprehensive write up with forecast financials, sensitivity analysis and valuation thoughts on my blog. https://medium.com/@BusinessBytes/adore-beautys-glow-up-is-it-a-buy-4baed5fcdfcd

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Excellent write up.

The only thing missing is an extra table showing what the current SP would need to be to give an acceptable IRR, say 10%, to each FY25 EV/EBITDA.

You didn't mention the Founders shares having come out of escrow. It must be tempting for them to sell more. They've done very well for themselves, I guess beyond their expectations.
Last edited by IndexInvestor: 30/08/21

ABY Price at posting: $4.97 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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