morning all and thanks happy,
I feel I need to apologize to all because I must have not written clearly in the OP. You seem to have got it and mandp was the only other one who said he could see where I was going with it. NZ got into the money side - which, again, was my fault because - that was not the real point.
OK - so to your question on the ??? whatever we call it - maybe 'kitty' is a better word - (because float has other meanings)
your question
"How many would you guess they need?"
I have absolutely zero idea - which is why I asked.
I guess there must be some formula for it - possibly like 10 days worth of average volume or similar.
But, something like that could catch you out badly -------- that's my understanding. Why?
Because if we look at AJX - we see that as the price has been dropping - the volume has dropped dramatically - and, we know that if AJX comes out with a big news story (one that actually moves the market - ie. sweeps away the bots etc.) - then, the not only does the price move up rapidly - but, so does the volume.
In a time when GR is talking about 'step changes' - well, I would have thought a step change ann. could change the ball game - and remember we are talking about trade on the US market - NYSE etc. - then, that market is massive compared to ours - AND, we have it from the company that several funds and other entities are ready to invest when revenue is proven ---------- well, would they wait for revenue to be proven at the end of Feb. 2017 - if Nick came out with a 'step change' ann. ?
I don't know - but, what I do know is that it would be sure possible and of course you would get a retail rush anyway - which all would add up to a large demand for ADR's - which would mean that an issuer (of ADR's) would have a hell of a scramble to get shares from the ASX into the custodial bank.
Now the above is all my thinking only - and, I could be very wrong - maybe that's not how it works at all - but, if it is
then surly we would have to be talking about 10's of millions required in the kitty for such times - because as far as I know the price of the ADR's is set 'before' movements in the SP -
again, I could be wrong on that - but, that comes to mind from all the discussions on these forums here from way back.
so - if that is correct - then an issuer wouldn't want to be flogging around finding say 20 shares to fill a single ADR at say $20 (lets forget currency diff.) - if AJX shares are at a buck and sailing north strongly - they would get caught out big time if the demand was in millions ----------- or even hundreds of thousands (of ADR's)
So - that's it - that's my thinking - all my opinions only - and, could be completely wrong.
Now - why I thought about this was - that we are hitting revenue (or should be - ref. 18.5 etc.) - now - if that is the case then it is MORE than possible that Nick won't have an ipo - ie. raise money to list -------------- he will just list.
Now - ok, we have discussed that before. - But, the thing that came out the other day was the timing.
Why? -------- because the Presidential election is due on Nov. 8 - yes?
And, we have been told and it has been discussed that listing before that is just not on ------------ now, I accepted that as fact --------- but, then, I had been thinking - or moreso not thinking in detail -
when one thinks through it - why is it a bad idea to list in the leadup to an election or big event?
The money.
Mostly it's because one raises money to list ---------- that's where the risk is for timing - if people are anxious about something unsettling - they won't cough up cash.
Make sense?
But, - what if one isn't going to raise money?
To me - unless I am dreadfully wrong ---- I don't think it will make a difference at all ---------- if one listed and there was not much interest ------------- well, so what? Nothing changes. It's not like you get smacked down hard - because there is nothing to smack down -------- there have been no new shares printed.
All that can actually happen is that some will buy - which means that the issuer has to supply the ADR's by buying them from us and sticking them in the custodial bank.
If the thing fell as flat as a fart - - nothing would change --------- until the company came out with positive anns. - which is when people would buy ADR's -- and, from there on - we would have a 'normal' market.
Do I make sense there?
all my opinions again.
So - in the discussion on timing - what came out was --- that everyone including the drover's dog is saying the end of the year is going to be BIG -- so, IMO --- Nick isn't any dunce here ------- if you are going to have BIG news ----- would you want to be listed on the US boards 'before' then or after.
Remember - probably not raising money here - so, no need for a sell job ---------- hence - IMO - and, yes it is only IMO -
he would want to be in place BEFORE news - news being - ?? 'step change' and most certainly probably end Jan 4C and most definitely half report - end Feb.
To me ------- timing wise - the 'step change' might be the key - but, I have no idea when that will be - but, it could be well before 'revenue' shows.
I hope I made sense in the above -- all my understanding and, probably full of holes - but, I think some of it must be in the ballpark.
have a great day all
Pinto
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