credit to next investorsStock to watch: AHISpeaking of out of...

credit to next investors


Stock to watch: AHISpeaking of out of favour investments that we think could make a comeback soon… AHI has been a bit out of favour the last few months after it made some big promises last year but didn’t meet timeframes for delivery - specifically its $3.5M Nexus Vita deal, its NASDAQ listing and a couple of big partnerships that have not delivered revenue just yet (which has been frustrating for us and other AHI shareholders - AHI is around our 6th biggest holding).AHI is a mobile based technology for face and body scanning with applications in health, fitness and apparel. The tech is embedded into partner apps.We think these delays have been what has caused the AHI share price to come off from highs of above $2 to bouncing pretty comfortably around the $1.2 mark - big promises from a company are great to get a share price moving, but delivering on those promises on time is critical to sustain share price rises and give credibility to any new promises made by the company.Here is why we are closely watching AHI this weekromise #1 imminent: Nexus Vita: AHI’s partner delays appear to be from their partners taking longer than expected to launch their apps (with the AHI tech embedded) which is out of AHI’s control. AHI seems to have taken control of this delay risk by providing development services for Nexus Vita (and charging $500k for it) so we expect this timeframe to be more in AHI’s control going forward.Promise #2 Imminent : NASDAQ listing - long promised listing appears to be getting real now, see this page listing AHI as an upcoming IPO on Nasdaq.com. We also managed to dig up the US prospectus document circulating to US investors here - AHI promise #2 looks to happen very soon. Promise #3 Imminent: Revenue from Tinjoy China Partnership - yes there has been delays on many of AHI’s promised partnerships, but AHI’s 14th Sept announcement says that around this week they will get the initial revenue numbers from their TinJoy China partnership to see how many of the 144,000 reported pre-registrations will convert into paying users.After we find out this initial revenue, AHI will know the follow up revenue numbers from Tinjoy China on a monthly basis going forward.Here is OUR rough calc on what to expect: For AHI’s initial revenue, we will use the industry average conversion rate for “freemium” or “pre-registration” style revenue models of ~3% to ~5%. Our rough calculation: AHI gets A$44.8 per year fee for each conversion, so if we see ~3% of the 144,000 pre registrations convert that will be around A$200k to AHI this month. Of course these are just our rough assumptions and like anything in the small cap market this is no guarantee. WHAT to watch for: if the initial AHI revenue from the Tinjoy China deal hits around our roughly calculated $200k mark, we think AHI will come right back on the markets radar, especially now that the NASDAQ listing appears to be legitimately locked in too.Blue sky: AHI reckons Tinjoy China is targeting 1,000,000 paying users by this Christmas (meaning tens of million of dollars to AHI)… a big number like this sounds great but after a couple of false starts we will start getting excited IF we see initial revenue of ~$200k announced, which will be an early positive sign of reaching the bigger number over the next few months and a big tick in the credibility department for AHI going forward.Like with our investments in gold and traditional energy that are currently out of favour but we expect to come back, we think if AHI can deliver some of its long promised traction sentiment will turn quick