SFR 4.51% $8.68 sandfire resources limited

Topcall 44 you obviously are a new buy to this game and dont...

  1. 679 Posts.
    Topcall 44 you obviously are a new buy to this game and dont have any history on SFR. The two guys that run SFR Karl Simich and Miles Kennedy previously were the Chairman and MD of Kimberly Diamonds NL that lost around $1B of shareholders money and were just about to go under when someone gave them a few dollars for the company and shareholders ended up with nothing or that close to nothing. They had institutional support and the instos are not fond of them either. The WA market is a locust plague Market. A bit of a good story and the whole town jumps into a stock, with the tailender buyers from the eastern states last in and usually paying the high end price. Most WA investors are in SFR at 40-60c most eastern states investors are in from $1.50 to $4.00. Getting the picture.???? Next CDU reportedly drilled around 250,000m of drill holes and SFR has drilled around 10,000m. So thats CDU drilling 25 times as many holes. SFR started their JORC in July 2009. So its taken 7 months to complete their JORC. CDU started their JORC in September 2009 2 months after SFR with 25 times the drilling. 250,000m against 10,000m. You obviously have your head in the sand are very naive and quite frankly do not know what you are talking about. I am not having a go at SFR, but someone needs to bring this into prospective. SFR and CDU are both listed companies trying to do the best for their shareholders. This is not SFR against CDU or visa versa. As I see it these are two great companies and both have two completely different deposits. Firstly the SFR deposit commences at between 120 160m depth from the surface and will have high start-up costs and high production costs and hopefully the grade will compensate for that. Industry standard for a mine like this is going to cost around $5-$600m to access the ore, this includes all underground and hauling equipment. With around 95m shares on issue it is going to cost shareholders around $10 per share to be raised just in mining equipment, haulage gear, shaft and underground development etc. In addition they will require around $150m for the plant and associated infrastructure a camp for 150 guys, water and services. This adds an extra $3-$4 per share needed to be raised. So at this stage shareholders are going to need to find and part with $$14-$15 for every share they already have. The next thing to remember is that this deposit is in the middle of nowhere and any concentrates are going to be trucked out. Bear in mind that a triple road train only hails 60 tonne at a time and is going to have to transport around 300klms, that 600klms turnaround, to rail. An airstrip and air services are going to have to be constructed and the roads for the road trains are going to be upgraded and upkept. Allow another $50m plus the upkeep of the road. This is the real world and these are the real costs. Most of the mines in the Meekatharra mining district are gold mines and only moving gold and a Toyota can carry more gold in one trip than 500 road trains in dollar value. So behind the hype and the waiting for the JORC which they have said will be out in the next 2 weeks or before just remember one thing. On the day of the JORC there will be 95% of shareholders and 50% of them owning the stock for 50c bailing is my guess. After the JORC the hype is over and then the capitals raisings and the real work starts. We will see how many are still standing after that event. If the JORC is less than 50m tonnes then I suggest there will only be the directors left standing.

    This is my perspective and it may seem a little harsh, it is in fact reality.

    On the other side of the fence and another great company is CDU who has a lot of small shareholders and not a lot of institutional support, although reading the last annual report top 20 shareholders they have 40% of the company, so in fact they probably do have a lot of institutional support and maybe a lot more than they are given credit for.



    When you consider that CDU has drilled 25 times as many holes as SFR and it has taken SFR 7 months for a JORC it is feasible that the Management of CDU were a little optimistic to say the least in having it out by December considering they started 2 months after SFR.

    As I see it CDU has an open cut mine in the works with the ore on the surface, so mining or ore will commence when mining commences. The rockland mine is 15-20klms from the railway or that is what the annual report says and the smelter is only 100klms away. I cant see how there is a comparison between these two companies and why people try to compare them. One is a high cost under ground mining operation in the middle of nowhere and the other one is a low cost open cut mining operation near a railway and a smelter. They are absolutely two different styles of operations.



    At the CDU AGM I did ask WM what he thought about SFR and would he consider taking them over. He laughed and said Miles and Karl are best of friends for over 30 year,

    But he said they are good operators and he wishes them all the best. So it seems the only controversy and duckshoving is between the shareholders as the directors of both companies are mates. As for the beat up about the Chairman and the MD of SFR punching up as described by Topcall 44, I think that is journos cods-wallop. Anyway we shall all be rewarded I am sure. I have stuck with CDU, but I wish the SFR shareholders the best of luck.

 
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