I agree with you that banks are almost entirely focussed on cashflow and debt coverage while all a shareholder should really care about is earnings and growth.
However, I think they are more interconnected than you think.
I believe the majority of the debt was sized based on the FCF that COE were expected to generate. We know that the FCF of Sole is significantly lower due to:
The combination of the above are likely to reduce FCF from Sole by up to 50% (in the short term, until "root cause analysis" is identified). COE have opened discussions with the financiers to restructure their debt (because of the reduced FCF that they have available due to Sole).
- Lower production (average of 40TJ/day instead of 68 TJ). 40% less FCF based on this alone (which is probably even higher, due to some costs being fixed)
- Increased cost to COE due to having to source (purchase gas) to then on sell to meet its offtake arrangements.
They had planned to have this all sorted by 30 June 2021. In my investments, I have learnt that no news is not good news.
We know APA have written off the plant - if the banks also take this view, I think there will be a reduction on the facility (which may be okay in the immediate short term, as COE have cash to paydown the facility), but it will make future growth projects extremely difficult / contingent on a CR.
Surely news is imminent
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