While I got a tiny allocation in the IPO, I think this company has genuine potential to return excellent long term returns for shareholders. If it doesnt run too hard then I will be looking to adding Aero to my long term portfolio. Here is my analysis on NEA vs Aero below based on publicly available information.
Nearmap | FY13 | FY14 | FY15 | FY16 | FY17 | Aerometrex FY19 |
Mcap | $134mil | $145mil | $172 Mil | 220 Mil | $284 Mil | $96.3 Mil |
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SOI | 323,346,101.00 | 338,146,101.00 | 355,496,101 | 357,046,101 | 389,969,848 | 94,400,00 |
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Options | 39,100,000 | 34,950,000 | 28,005,000 | 35,170,000 | 27,624,911 | 1944000 |
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Notes | 7 months since move to subscription model. Similar to Aerometrex, nearmap faced a drop in revenue after move to SAAS model (Nov 2012) from $11 mil in FY11 to $5 mil in FY12 before recovering . |
| $100K in revenue in US. Free trials launched. Paywall launched in Dec 2015. |
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| Metromap moved in subscription model already. SAAS model kicked off |
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Australia $ | $11 Mil | $17.8 Mil | $17.1 Mil | $30 Mil | $36.3 Mil |
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USA $ | Nil | Nil | $100,000 | $1.5 mil | $5.3 Mil |
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Revenue | $11 Mil | $17.8 Mil | $23.6 Mil | $31.30 | $41.1 Mil | $16.7 Mil |
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EBITDA | (-$0.2 Mil) | $5.8mil | $627,000 | $600,000 | $6 Mil | $5.19 Mil |
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NPAT | (-$1mil) | $7.1Mil | (-$789,000) | (-$7.1 Mil) | ($-5.3 Mil) | $2.57 Mil |
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Cash | $13.4 Mil | $23.3 Mil | $17.2 Mil | $12.2 Mil | $28 Mil | $25Mil |
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Recurring revenue |
| $17.3 Mil | $23.4 Mil | $34 Mil | $40 Mil | $2.5 Mil approx | $8 mil |
Products suites/initiatives | Photomaps- top down view | Lauch Hypercamera and FAA approval- test flights in US begin, | 3D modelling launched | partnership with Omniearth for water management and insurance tool sales |
| Aerial photography and mapping – The key products from this activity are aerial photographs, orthophotography (scale-corrected 2D aerial imagery maps), Digital Terrain Models (DTMs), Digital Surface Models (DSMs), and digitised 3D feature data for Geographic Information Systems.
Aerial LiDAR surveys – Aerometrex provides an aerial LiDAR surveying service, an advanced aerial surveying technique which accurately maps the ground surface using airborne lasers. |
Obliques-45 Deg angle | New products for Rail,Solar,Property, Insurance | New Oblique imagery products launched | Folsom Labs and Roofsnap - solar quotes |
| 3D modelling – Aerometrex has developed a sophisticated 3D modelling and mapping system derived from oblique aerial photographs. It offers 3D models of the highest resolution (1cm-2cm pixel) and absolute accuracy (5cm in the XY & Z dimensions) derived from aerial platforms. |
Terrain - similar to google maps | Intergation with Google Earth | Hypercamera2 development | Hypercamera2 launch | Hypercamera2 allows 3D data sets to be deployed alongside 2D imagery | MetroMapTM – Aerometrex provides an online aerial imagery web-serving application, MetroMapTM, which offers Aerometrex’s highquality, accurate imagery to a subscriber base. MetroMapTM fulfils all of the quality and accuracy requirements of sophisticated geospatial data users and provides an easy-to-consume product for the corporate market, via a web browser interface. It will serve as a vehicle to sell all of Aerometrex’s extensive product range in the near future.
Patents lodged for Metrocam. |
Resolution / data capture costs | 1 cm | 5-8 cm resolution | $6.2 Mil spent on US capture | $3.4 Mil spent on US | $5.4 Mil spent on US capture | 3d model: 2-3cm and 7.7 cms for large models |
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Coverage | 75% of Australia | 85% of Australia | 170 Mil people in US. 50% of USA. | 190 Mil population USA.20 Mil Australia | 220 Mil Population USA | 3D modelling completed in NY and Philadelphia with potential to cover 50 major cities with strategic partner. Europe partial data capture in train due to bespoke projects undertaken in France and Germany. |
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Kms captured |
| 1.4 million Kms |
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| 3.5 Mil Kms |
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Data |
| 166 TB |
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Delivery Time | 3-5 days from capture | 3-5 days from capture | 3-5 days from capture |
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| 2 days |
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Avg revenue per customer | $4,000 |
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| $5,996.00 |
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Customers |
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| 5,503 | 6827 | 7227 | 700 |
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Users |
| 22,000 |
| 50,000 |
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Aerometrex is at the same stage as Nearmap was in 2013 in terms of financials , move to a SAAS model from one-off project based revenue. However, they are advanced in a few aspects such as product development – 3D and Lidar product suite is ready whereas Nearmap had to develop the additional products besides the overhead imaging (photomaps) to oblique imagery(2014), 3D modelling (2015)etc. In addition Nearmap embarked on US expansion 2 years after listing whereas Aeromtrex has a US and European presence through their existing projects. I think the scale up in data capture especially in the US will be cheaper and faster than Nearmap who spent over $30 Mil and 3 years. In terms of short term valuation, Aerometrex is attractively priced with a 30-40% discount to the implied value but if they continue growing their recurring revenue then it has a possibility to get to $500 mil valuation in the next 18 -24 months being mindful that they will need another $50 mil of cash in the future.
