Just thought I'd drop a note re AFGHA.We have been active in the...

Just thought I'd drop a note re AFGHA.

We have been active in the last couple of weeks buying these notes. As I see it, AFGHA boils down to an investment based on whether AFG survives or not. On recent news, this is becoming more and more likely - still a high risk, but less so that the beginning of the year. AFG itself is a decision based on whether they will survive AND what will be left over for shareholders if they do. I feel a lot better about the notes than I do trying to work out whether the shares are a good price or not, although I am now firmly of the opinion that they will pull through.

It appears AFG have budgeted for the interest payments and on the current SP, this would represent good long term income prospects if you can sit out the current turmoil.

According to the broker report, between Monday and Wednesday last week, the biggest net-buyer was Foster Stockbroking accounting for 16,500 of the notes purchased. UBS look like they put through a big crossing of 19,000 on Wednesday. The biggest net-seller was Goldman Sachs.

On Thursday and Friday, we only have dollar turnover data. It shows that of the $7m notes traded, UBS accounted for $5.7m and it looks to have been a crossing on Thursday. Foster Stockbroking were in there too accounting for $1.1m of the remainder.