Found this interesting article on MarketWatch pertaining to the opinion of Gary Shilling, who was one of a handful of people who predicted the USA housing bust.
?I?m predicting another recession next year,? he said.
Not a double dip, he emphasized, because we?re already two years from the end of the last recession and 3 ? years from the business cycle?s previous peak, in December 2007. Historically, he said, economic expansions last about three years, especially in long down cycles of the kind he thinks we?ve been in since 2000.
So, he?s looking for a brand new cyclical recession beginning in 2012.
Many Americans will be forgiven if they can?t see the difference between that and the recovery we?ve been experiencing.
That?s Shilling?s point. Usually, deep recessions like the one we just lived through are followed by strong snapbacks, like a growth slingshot.
This time, however, the recovery has been ?distinctly subpar,? in his words. ?As of the first quarter, ..real GDP is barely above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2007, whereas earlier recoveries were well above their previous tops 13 quarters later.?
Translation: More than three years after the peak, we?re still not back to where we were. That's why I'm holding off buying for a while yet.
AFI Price at posting:
$4.46 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)