Good post. Your numbers are correct but you have omitted the key...

Good post.

Your numbers are correct but you have omitted the key consideration of income tax. As such, there is a little more downside risk than you have stated (albeit not a whole lot).

For a 15% taxpayer (e.g. super fund) buying AFIG at $110 and holding until maturity, the downside risk is 1.5%pa (annualised). If AFI is trading at $5.75, the upside is 8.1% annualised.

For a 39% taxpayer, with the same assumptions, downside risk is 3.3% annualised, and upside is 6.4% annualised.

While the numbers aren't as promising as you have presented them, it does nonetheless look like a good play with respect to risk/reward - and certainly far better than buying AFI ordinary shares at this stage.