til now whether its been raining a lot of not is irrelevant as the MCG is now brilliant at absorbing all that moisture and staying firm.
BUT
the ongoing forecast now seems to be getting a little worse, with the change due just on game time and the winds picking up after that - then the associated hail, rain, and basically impossible conditions.
theres been comments about geelong having a superiority in these types of conditions, but how many top teams from melbourne have they played at kardinia park in those sort of conditions ? sure its easy to invite freo and the bears down there and submit them to gales and driving rain. i think the MCG offers a different situation. there wont be so much a preferred end but more an understanding of what the wind is doing to the ball.
i think the key to todays game, under those conditions, is which team decides to throw out the 2009 playbook, dominated by those short game, handballing, precise kicking athletes, and replaced by very much old fashioned JUST MOVE IT DOWN THERE footy. high possession counts will lead to the ball being dropped/mishandled constantly, whereas just booting it long/pushing it forward in these conditions is a far batter option. gaining better field position and creating scoring opportunities from that will be the best option in these conditions. i expect 25-30 players on the ball all day, constant packs, constant ball ups, constant frustration from fans watching players attempting their normal pretty game, when the conditions just wont allow it. a scrubbing 30 metre kick forward is GOLD in these conditions, and a succession of them is what leads to scoring, rather than pin point passes to leading forwards or kicking to the tall, high marking forward.
with all this in mind im beginning to change my thinking on a result. the worse the conditions get, i still favour geelong, but it really brings the saints into the game, or at least ensures theres no more than a goal or 2 in it the whole day, provided both teams adopt the same tactics. if one coach fails to instruct their players to JUST MOVE IT DOWN THERE then they could cop a relative thrashing. a 4 goal margin can normally be recovered in 10 minutes of good footy, but today will be a match winning lead and impossible to retrieve.
as far as the punt, i notice the following bet types have all shortened dramatically (no surprise) both teams under 39.5 either team under 15.5 total match points under 150 pick the score double both under 60 total goals, all the lower options.
as a result i am changing my normal punt style and chasing some extremely exotic options rather than just winner or margin. im looking at all those goal scorer options like 1st goal in each quarter and most for the game. in these conditions they become a raffle, with simply whoever is in the best position at the moment they have ball and having a shot, rather than normal designated goal kickers, providing some value.
for me the timing of the weather change is the most important aspect. if the worst of the conditiona dont arrive til late in the game, all of the above is irrelevant, but if it arrives around start time, look out.
