Jonesboy, consider the following: Vale produce 340 million tonnes pa and have expansion plans to increase that by a further 60 mill (if Market price permits). Chinese govt is subsidising their own producers to keep them in business (this works on all levels for the Chinese) and Roy Hill is about to open 60 mill tonnes pa of the highest grade ore going around. Are you seriously suggesting that our miners hang up the towel and let these other players in (excepting Roy Hill). If we reduce our volumes, we lose out ALTOGETHER. Right now, Vale are on the ropes, and at this price, will not move forward on expansion, and the Chinese will only subsidise to a point. Roy hill have guaranteed off take and are therefore covered. My only concern re BHP and RIO right now is that they aren't being aggressive enough with their strategy, which might lead to a "lower for longer" scenario. I would much rather we see a quick re balance rather than a slow one, because its happening right now, whether we like it or not.
As far as jobs are concerned, I have the utmost sympathy for those who are being made redundant, but blame MUST be borne by those high cost producers AND their advisors, who clearly saw this train wreck coming a long time ago. Why didn't they all do capital raising at higher prices to reduce debt when they had the opportunity??
At least then, they would have options and some control over their future destiny.
Expand
