BIG (ASX) AFR Article

Originally posted by Ume ↑

Hi Ryzie, Thanky and all,

I've been just reading this forum and never posted. I owe you guys a lot of information and loved the warm atmothphere that existed here before.
You might not like what I'm going to say, but I'd like to share with you the small info I have, because I don't want you to lose more money.
For the disclosure, I sold half of my share around $2.7 early last week and the rest at $1.9 last Friday. I lost almost $100K on this.

It's about ARPU.

On BIG Review TV website, the most expensive "video marketing" package is $3987 pa. It looks like "Gold" is the most recommended, which is $2427pa.
On the other hand, BIG's quarterly update says ARPU is $8.2K.
I wondered where I can find such an expensive package.

I wanted to ask about it and called the number on BIG Un's website. I thought it is the number of IR, but my call was directed to the call centre.
I thought this is a good opportunity so said this call centre guy that I'm interested in buying BIG's video ad package.
First, He suggested $1K pm one($12K pa). It turned out to be "TV Show" $1000 one.
When I said I was thinking of cheaper "video marketing" packages, he said they are also available.

My question here is, how many small cafes or restaurants can afford $8.2K~$12K pa for video ad.
How many customers do they have to attract to make profit of more than $8.2K?
If you own hotels, wedding venues or Moelis, then $8.2K might be nothing, but it seems like a big risk for me to spend $8.2K as a small restraunt owner. However, I don't know anything about running a small business, I might be wrong.
My gut feeling is, if the ARPU is around $3K, the growth seems sustainable, but with $8.2K, I'm not sure.

Also, if it's $3K, there isn't much need for financial arrangement. If it's $8.2K~$12K though, there seems to be a lot of room for FC Capital to play a part.
The worst case senario is, BIG is compensating FCC for bad debts by issuing highly discounted shares.
In that case, the astonishing growth rate is unlikely to be sustainable, which would be Moelis is worried about, IMHO.

I was a big BIG believer, lost a lot of money myself and is really saddened.
I hope I'm wrong...Good luck to all holders.

Ume

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they can afford it through cash flow management allowed through financing / paying it off over installments, just like buying a new tv for the cafe, 50 months interest free, pay it off over time. the growth rate is sustainable as they have proven until an update proves otherwise, no point second guessing. the FCC thing has been covered to death and your fears in that area are the same as the journo which have been proven to be rubbish. sorry you lost money, I reckon the best way to get it back is find an oversold stock and ride it to where it should be, like big!!!!!