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Rampaul

442 Posts.

72

02/02/22

10:40

Post #: 59295086
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Originally posted by Ya: ↑

Dec end cash of USD 55.63 mil will reduce to USD 38.385 mil by March end. So convert that at 70c & divide by 99.8mil SOI. Worth 55c/sh

Next step, discount the USD 55mil SNE payments to calc its worth Present Value, ie today. Assume a timeframe of 3-5yrs.

No payment is due in 2022, First oil happens in say Q4 2023 & assuming 90k BOPD buildup for year-1 production & POO betwn 58-70/bbl, they could have a stream of mixed cashflow trickling in. So if all goes as per the above scenario, then perhaps they can get 55mil by Dec2025 or earlier.

For arguments if u use 3 yrs Time, 10% WACC & a lumpsum of USD 55mil to calc the PV10 of that future cashflow to calculate its worth as off now. Convert that to AUD at 70c.

Note that in theory they should get this amount of 55mil from first Oil in 2023 till 31Dec2027. These annual payments can b treated as a mix stream of Cashflow, since its dependent on future oil price etc etc.

U can assume a scenario of fast payment from WPL in 3yrs from now, OR
one could model USD 55mil broken down into annual payments over 4-5 yrs to work out its PV10.

They r worth AUD1.08-1.15 tops including cash on hand, with no value for the P50 resource in Kenya etc. To keep it simple, I've ignored if FAR pays any tax on this USD 55mil stream of cashflow. Hope this helps.

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You should be MD

FAR Price at posting: 60.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 47.0¢		Change -0.015(3.09%)		Mkt cap ! $43.43M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
47.0¢	47.5¢	47.0¢	$9.995K	21.23K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	82233	47.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
48.0¢	50000	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	32022	0.470
1	50000	0.465
1	50000	0.460
1	1822	0.450
1	3000	0.445

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.480	50000	1
0.485	50000	1
0.490	54000	2
0.510	100895	2
0.520	225286	3

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