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Iron ore scramble puts investors on their mettle.By David...

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    Iron ore scramble puts investors on their mettle.

    By David Blackwell - November 24 2010 23:06

    Aim investors seeking to take a punt on a continuing rise in demand for iron ore - driven mainly by China - are starting to be spoilt for choice.

    The benchmark price on the world market over the past 12 months has risen from $100 to $164 a tonne. Demand, now running at about 1bn seaborne tonnes a year, has risen by about 60m tonnes.

    There is no shortage of ore in the ground, but it requires a massive amount of capital to get it to where it is wanted. Observers joke that the first tonne costs several billion dollars to produce, while the second tonne can cost as little as $20. Producing the ore is as much of an exercise in logistics as it is in mining.

    On Thursday, Ferrum Crescent, which has two prospects in the Limpopo region of South Africa, will announce plans to raise almost 10m(pounds) and join Aim next month. The company, which is already quoted on the Australian Stock Exchange, will use the money for a feasibility study into its Moonlight magnetite deposit.

    Ferrum is following hard on the heels of Zanaga Iron Ore, which last week raised $50m to develop an iron ore mine in the south-west of the Republic of Congo. Zanaga says the 3.3bn tonne ore body contains a significant proportion of haematite, which is in demand from China.

    Xstrata has funded pre-feasibility studies, due to be completed this year, and paid $106m for an option to buy 50 per cent plus one share in the project. But the mine is not expecting to start exporting a planned 45m tonnes a year until the end of 2016.

    Bellzone, which is planning to develop an iron ore mine in Guinea, joined Aim in April after settling for about half the 60m(pounds) it set out to raise. It reduced the price in order to net two blue-chip institutions regarded as vital to its future.

    A 268km rail line and port facility have to be developed before it can start exporting its 2.4bn tonne reserves of magnetite. But since the flotation Bellzone has reached a binding agreement with China International Fund on financing the necessary infrastructure.

    Ferrum, which is expected to have a market capitalisation of about 36m(pounds), has much smaller reserves but has the advantage of being close to existing South African infrastructure and services. The feasibility study will look at moving up the value chain, including making pig iron or pellets for blast furnaces.

    Nevertheless, it is not expected to start production until September 2014, ramping up to full capacity two years later. Investors with less patience may like to take a look at the two other iron ore prospects on the junior market. African Minerals and London Mining both expect to start production next year.

    London Mining, which is also quoted on Oslo Axess, was introduced to Aim a year ago. It did not need to raise money towards its Marampa project in Sierra Leone after the 2008 sale of its Brazilian iron ore mining subsidiary for $810m.

    The risks of operating in Africa were highlighted this month, when it issued a statement noting "recent inaccurate media speculation" relating to Marampa. Operations had not been suspended, the company said, and it would produce the first iron ore from Sierra Leone in 25 years in the first half of next year.

    Coincidentally African Minerals, founded by controversial businessman Frank Timis, is also expecting to start producing iron ore from Sierra Leone, although towards the end of the year.

    The company announced in July a $1.5bn investment agreement with Shandong Iron & Steel for a 25 per cent stake in its Tonkolili project. Last week the company said Shandong's due diligence was still proceeding and the execution of the final transaction documents would be delayed.

    The incentive for all these projects is that, once up and running, they will recoup their capital quickly. But investors - even those with nerves of steel - need to factor in that the large mining groups are also looking at increases in iron ore production.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/89fae8cc-f7f1-11df-8d91-00144feab49a.html#axzz16GqHhs4L
 
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