4 weeks have passed since the scheme announcement and the market...

4 weeks have passed since the scheme announcement and the market has ESG's shareprice at a slight discount to the offer price as expressed in its relationship to Santos daily closing price.

You can read into this yourself but my take is that the discount of currently around 1.5% to 2% is to factor in a no vote and no alternate proposal or higher price on the immediate horizon.
Once this moves to parity and above then I would be suspicious. A move from the left field is not out of the question, but hey what a time to move with all the negative sentiment from the Greens, the Browns, the BOF, and now the Tony Abbotts.
Here is the first 4 weeks graph

Also we probably should be discussing the likely outcomes of holding or jumping ship now.
As most know Santos will have an ex divy date at the end of the month, so the prices should rise in a stable market [ LOL ] and then drop off as STO goes ex dividend. Some may wish to capture this dividend but be aware of the costs involved [ Full service brokers 2%, Commsec about 1% and internet about 1/2 again approximately. Compare this to zero should the proposal go through, and when I spoke to my full service broker on Friday @ Macquaries she said they are advising their clients to change over to Santos, why not when they can collect 2% commission against zero.
There must be other constructive comments that others can add so we can build up a pro & cons list as we count down to October.

Cheers Mattocks