Thanks Oscar and morning crew.
Half-time round-up:
Aussie shares overcame early losses to edge higher despite fresh headwinds from overseas.
The ASX 200 reached mid-session 12 points or 0.2 per cent stronger at 6233 as gains in industrials and the big banks offset declines among resource stocks.
There were plenty of reasons for the market to go lower this morning: US stocks dropped after President Donald Trump threatened to broaden his trade war; the International Monetary Fund slashed its growth outlook for the global economy; and the local market's best performer yesterday - Crown Resorts - was a deadweight on the index after Wynn Resorts abandoned its takeover offer and walked away.
Shares in Crown plunged 8.9 per cent after its American suitor issued a brief statement saying it was terminating discussions because news of its confidential approach leaked to the press yesterday, prompting Crown to issue a statement through the ASX. Today's dive might have been worse if not for the lingering hope among investors that the company is now firmly 'in play' as a takeover candidate.
US stocks declined overnight after President Trump raised the prospect of imposing tariffs on European imports in retaliation for European subsidies for aeroplane-manufacturer Airbus. Adding to the downward-pressure was news that the IMF had cut its growth outlook for the global economy to 3.2 per cent this year from the 3.5 per cent it expected as recently as January. The S&P 500 shed 0.61 per cent, ending an eight-session winning run. The gloom extended into after-market futures trading, with S&P 500 futures lately down two points or 0.1 per cent.
Seven West Media was the best performer on the index, rising 5.2 per cent after selling its 50 per cent stake in Yahoo7 to Verizon Media for $20.75 million. Gold miner Saint Barbara was another standout, gaining 3.5 per cent after buying the Green Dam project in WA from Element 25 for $700,000.
CBA was the pick of the banks, rising 1 per cent. ANZ and Westpac added 0.6 per cent and NAB 0.4 per cent.
Resource stocks accounted for most of the falls here, energy and materials stocks falling 0.5 per cent. Alumina lost 3.1 per cent, Independence Group 3.8 per cent, South32 2 per cent and Origin Energy 1.3 per cent. Among the majors, BHP eased 0.8 per cent, while Rio Tinto scratched out a rise of 0.2 per cent.
The federal government's election prospects received a mild bump from its budget announcement, according to consumer sentiment data released today. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment improved 1.9 points to 100.7 in April from 98.8 in March.
Asian markets performed worse than the local market. China's Shanghai Composite gave up 0.9 per cent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Japan's Nikkei both shed 0.7 per cent.
Oil pulled back from five-month highs overnight, ending a run of six straight rises. Texas crude futures were lately sitting at $US64.08 a barrel. Gold futures eased a little this morning, lately down $2.90 or 0.2 per cent at $US1,305.30 an ounce. On currency markets, the dollar was buying 71.1 US cents.
The economic calendar ramps up a gear tonight with the European Central Bank due to release a policy statement at a press conference and Wall Street waiting for inflation figures and the minutes from the last Federal Reserve board meeting. The big potential market-mover here tomorrow is Chinese inflation data, due an hour and a half into the session.
Trading: in this game it's important to have clearly-defined trading rules. It's even more important to observe them. I broke several of mine this morning and I'm paying the cost. First rule is that no matter how appealing a trade opportunity appears, take a minute to understand what's driving the action by checking the stock thread, googling the company name for news, etc. Didn't do that before buying ARE, ended up exiting very quickly for brokerage. Second rule: with retracing shares, don't buy round numbers, buy just below. ie, don't pay 40c, be patient and wait for 39c. If you buy below, at the very least there's usually an opportunity to exit at the round number for a slim profit. Didn't observe that rule with AVH, so didn't get a profit opp before the situation got a lot worse. Rule 3: if you see clear evidence of propping, get out. Didn't honour that rule when the propping in AVH was obvious at 40c. Should have got out for brokerage. Didn't. Looks a lot like a 'cost day' that coulda shoulda been avoided.
