There are 314m FP. All IMO. I think i can make the $10.00 case, just on the Aus market. Would require a MC of $3.14b
At gross $300/ test, net lets say $135 profit per test.
Then growth to the full 2.1m tests PA, plus the others who dont get a mam for cultural reasons, but might get a blood test.
But to be conservative, i will put the non mams aside, but assume full conversion of the 2.1m mams pa into blood tests augmented.
Now 2.1m x $135/ test = $283m pa x PE 11 = $3.14b
Thats just a convenience calculation to arrive at the $10.00. And there may be some additional dilution along the way, that might hair cut that a bit.
We might not attribute a PE of 11, maybe less. But when a growth market looks at the USA, when the same volumes is a 52m PA, thats 25 X the size of our market. I think i can speculate that the market will price this with a high PE forward growth earnings multiple as it gets momentum.
Then roll into the actual USA launch. 52m volumes again, is just the existing mams, there again, others who will want just the blood test who dont currently get mams, so the market pool is much larger.
If i can make a case for $10.00 on the AUS market, how much higher is the real target for the USA and Europe ? Perhaps I should be saying rather 10c to $10.00 to maybe $100.00, but we dont know the licencing structure that may exist to our net margins overseas.
From $10.00 to $100.00 is another 10X, but the volumes market is over 25X greater for just USA mams. (and even more if you include Europe) Just saying. Its a big big big growth curve. And maybe think of it 10c to $10.00 AUS -$100.00+ OS over 10 years and beyond. The USA launch is next year, but allowing for the next decade or so for a parallel market growth both locally and O/S.
But for mine, todays base entry is an easy one, as its first ride on the roller coaster is the pre revenue market wake up to the massive mountain pictured above. That re-rate should avail plenty of buoyancy.
