www.businessspectator.com.au By Leah Schnurr of Reuters
NEW YORK - Investors could do their holiday shopping on Wall Street next week as bargain-basement prices for stocks and optimism over efforts to fight the year-long recession may prompt a year-end rally.
But not even a Santa Claus rally to end the year can rescue 2008 from going into the books as the worst for stocks since the Great Depression, thanks to the body blow delivered by the housing market slump, credit crisis and, finally, recession.
With just seven trading days left, the benchmark S&P 500 index is down 39.5 per cent for the year, on pace perhaps to match Wall Street's second-worst year ever, 1937, when the S&P also slid nearly 39 per cent. Should no rally develop next week, 2008 could well challenge 1931 - when the S&P crashed 46 per cent - for the mantle of Wall Street's worst-ever year.
That said, the slump in stocks has left them relatively cheap, and analysts are more optimistic that unconventional recession-fighting efforts such as the Federal Reserve's big interest-rate cuts may soon gain traction.
"You're getting a lot of people picking through the wreckage of this year and doing some selective buying," Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates, in Hinsdale, Illinois, said.
"There are some good bargains out there and there is a fair amount of buying in the marketplace."
Next week, market watchers will look at fresh data on the housing market for any sign that the sector is getting closer to a bottom.
Hunting for holiday bargains
Volume is expected to be light in a week shortened by the Christmas holiday and an early close on Christmas Eve.
The buying spirit tends to visit Wall Street nearly every year, "bringing a short, sweet, respectable rally within the last five days of the year and the first two in January," according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
Santa's appearance has been good for an average 1.5 per cent gain since 1969, according to the Almanac, while a failure to see such a rally tends to precede times in which stocks can be purchased later in the year at much lower prices.
As of Friday's close, the broad S&P 500 was off about 40 per cent from where it started the year, and was down about 44 per cent from the all-time high it reached in October 2007.
But the S&P has recovered about 20 per cent since hitting an 11-year intraday low in late November, prompting some to speculate that the worst may be over.
"A lot of people are wondering whether they'll get a Santa Claus rally," Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut, said.
"Clearly, this is not a normal year, but just the fact that you have history on your side around the New Year's holidays can only be called a positive."
Analysts said sentiment over the outlook for the battered US economy has shifted to a more positive tone as investors were cheered by the Fed's move this week to cut the benchmark fed funds rate to as low as zero and pledge further measures to shore up credit markets.
Optimism over President-elect Barack Obama's proposed stimulus plan has added to the more positive tone, helping the market rally in the face of an onslaught of dire economic and corporate outlooks.
"No one is very good at dealing with economic Armageddon, but we have dealt with recessions in the past," Mr Sheldon said.
He noted that more investors are coming around to "the opinion the economy is going through a severe recession, but we've been here before, and we'll get through this at some point. We're starting to see a little more positive sentiment."
Watching home sales and cash registers
Among economic indicators due next week are new home sales and existing home sales for November, the final look at gross domestic product for the third quarter, and the final December reading on consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
The home sales figures are not likely to bring much relief, with current forecasts pointing to an 18-year low for new home sales and a nearly 10-year low for sales of existing houses. Meanwhile, the GDP data should confirm the economy, which has been in recession since December 2007, contracted at an annual rate of 0.5 per cent in the third quarter.
Weekly jobless claims will come out a day early on Wednesday because of Thursday's Christmas holiday.
Analysts also will look for anecdotal signs of how retailers fare over the last shopping weekend before the holidays.
This weekend, retailers will make a last-ditch effort to lure cash-strapped consumers to spend. But Friday's big snowstorm that has blanketed much of the northern half of the country threatened to hold down shopper traffic.
Quarterly results are light, with pharmacy chain Walgreen Co and memory chip manufacturer Micron Technology Inc are among those expected to report.
CBA Price at posting:
$27.80 Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
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