Thanks Oscar for this morning. Thanks Keyser for yesterday. Glad normal service has resumed on HC. The site is once again running like a dream.
Half-time round-up:
Australian shares struggled to hold early gains as caution prevailed on global markets ahead of tonight's debut press conference from new US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The ASX 200 trimmed an initial 27-point rally to a mid-session gain of just five points or 0.1% at 5941 amid concerns that the new Fed chief may take a more bearish line on interest rates than his predecessor. Market anxiety over the US rate outlook has dampened progress on stock markets around the world this week, but some analysts believe a succession of rate rises is already baked into equity prices, creating potential for a rally tonight.
"The upcoming [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting is preceded by a market crash, elevated volatility, rising negative sentiment around trade, while consensus view of the Fed remains hawkish," Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, head of US equity strategy at JP Morgan, told CNBC. "Given this backdrop, even a slightly dovish Fed outcome would set up a rather low bar for equities to advance."
S&P 500 futures were recently ahead 1.25 points or 0.05%. China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.43% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.97%.
Energy stocks spearheaded this morning's Australian advance, rising 1.2%. Support came from materials +0.6% and financials +0.3%. Telecoms slumped 1.3%, utilities 0.9% and gold 0.6%.
Crude oil futures improved 29 cents or 0.46% this morning to US$63.83 a barrel. Gold futures edged up 50 cents or 0.04% to US$1,312.40 an ounce. The dollar was buying 76.92 US cents.
Appears to be a good chance of a US rally tonight unless Jerome Powell drops the ball on the first down. (Memo to self: careful with the gridiron metaphors - you've no idea what you're talking about.) We've been in this situation many times: global markets hit 'Pause' ahead of a big US event, mark time in the lead-up, then let out a big sigh of relief when it's a non-event. The XJO seems to have formed one of those symmetrical triangles where the breakout will be telling. We've had a series of lower highs - could really use a break to the upside to restore confidence. Trading: slow week so far. Scraped half a pip from AVQ. Ahead in XAM. Nothing so far to raise the pulse.
