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  1. 299 Posts.
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    I’m not sure you’ve actually addressed the specific “figures” or the salient points of the article and my response?

    let me know your “specific thoughts” on each of the following:

    - AG says they do feel like apt has a reasonable chance of 11% of tam in 5 years, equivalent to 260 billion. That’s a little less than doubling current yoy fir 4 years. We agree that’s possible, even likely

    - however they argue zero growth from then on, meaning their “profit” after, say, 1 billion costs, will return about a 5% yield. Can you specifically comment or give thought on these actual figures rather than just the sane old “it’s a ponzi” Trump type rhetoric with no discussion (if i say it often enough maybe half of America will start believing me!)

    - So “if” they fo still have growth in 5 years, even if only 20%, no longer 100%, can you understand if they are now paying a dividend, smart investors will accept an equivalent 1% dividend similar to csl, which would mean a SP of $500

    If you could give your thoughts on the “actual figures” that would be appreciated.

    AG agree the numbers are possible, it’s just a matter of whether it is then valued like a bank with no foreseeable future growth, in which case I agree a SP of $100 in 5 years time is reasonable, meaning zero capital growth from today, or if 20% yoy growth is still potentially possible from there, in which case a $500 SP is likely, an excellent investment from here?

    finally your thoughts on the MC being greater than a current investment bank, 2 things

    1) In 20 years tome the investment back may well b 3x what it is now. Does that make sense? So can’t compare today’s mc with what it may be then

    2) Notwithstanding the above point.... yes I can absolutely see a mainstream world “routine way of paying” for things, a disruptor thst came slong 20 years ago, being “significantly bigger” than in individual US investment bank. That’s extremely easy to understand. That’s exactly why we’re invested.

    thoughts? (Please try to very specifically address each point in turn. Thanks)



    Last edited by Karcus: 17/11/20
 
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