hahafair enough the only way scenario 1 kicks in within 1 year...

haha

fair enough

the only way scenario 1 kicks in within 1 year is if bnpl loss rates blow out to match credit cards.

so if this happens then you maybe you're right. this is why loss rates are critically important for bnpl. they use lower loss rates as leverage against 'greater government regulation'. they lose that leverage if their loss rate creeps up to match traditional card providers.

this is why zip selling higher loss rates as being 'within their risk appetite' was a totally dumb play...hopefully they'll listen to shareholders and understand that maintaining lower loss rates is their best weapon for keeping regulators at bay!