Afterpay Valuation, page-3325

First 3325 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Andredamus1

2,146 Posts.

534

03/09/20

16:49

Post #: 47065531
Share

Originally posted by StefanF: ↑

What do you make of the average customer annual spend number?

I've done some very quick back of the envelope calculations. Given the average outstanding balances are $190 It would be save to assume that the average item size is about double that, give or take (maybe the average transaction size is reported somewhere, I'm not sure). But let's forget about doubling it, let's stick to the $190 just to stay on the conservative reasons.

The most mature cohort is transaction 25x per year, which means if we multiply that with the conservative number of $190 you'd get a annual customer spend of almost $5,000. So as time goes by and other cohorts mature and spend more and more frequently (including the most mature cohort) we could see this "Customer annual spend" metric increase substantially year on year, materially impacting Sum-of-parts valuation.

Is this the wrong way of thinking about it? I must admit I'm rather time poor so only spent a few minutes on this but what do you think, what am I missing?

Expand

The quoted average order is $153.

The way your are looking at it is correct.

In ANZ, I have calculated the average annual spend per customer (based on average number of customers over the period) as follows:
FY18 - $1,475
FY19 - 1,724
FY20 - $2,126
So this is completely consistent with the maturing cohort theory.

Average annual spend per customer in the US is significantly lower at $1,119 and the Group average for FY20 was $1,527. I am hoping to see a meaningful increase in the US in FY21.

APT Price at posting: $83.79 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Bitcoin hits fresh record as instos pile into BTC ETFs – and Trump helps, too

'We're looking': Nickel-rich Indonesia sounds graphite warning to Aus producers

Aussie inflation seemingly hit a 3 year low. So why's the ASX200 red?

MIN

Movers and Shakers: Zip Co, MinRes, Kuniko, more – The week's top ASX gainers

Week 44 Wrap: Relatively boring week ahead of US election; HotCopper's most watched; Oz inflation at 3.5%

The Altcoin Landscape (Part 1): Key alternative cryptocurrencies to watch

Making money: How many microcaps should be in an investor's portfolio?

MKT

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Palladium's the newest geopolitical hot commodity. But ASX exposure is limited

What each US election outcome would mean for Australian companies & investors