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Afterpay Valuation, page-3335

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Goodfella58

4,333 Posts.

1945

03/09/20

22:18

Post #: 47073106
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Originally posted by StefanF: ↑

What do you make of the average customer annual spend number?

I've done some very quick back of the envelope calculations. Given the average outstanding balances are $190 It would be save to assume that the average item size is about double that, give or take (maybe the average transaction size is reported somewhere, I'm not sure). But let's forget about doubling it, let's stick to the $190 just to stay on the conservative reasons.

The most mature cohort is transaction 25x per year, which means if we multiply that with the conservative number of $190 you'd get a annual customer spend of almost $5,000. So as time goes by and other cohorts mature and spend more and more frequently (including the most mature cohort) we could see this "Customer annual spend" metric increase substantially year on year, materially impacting Sum-of-parts valuation.

Is this the wrong way of thinking about it? I must admit I'm rather time poor so only spent a few minutes on this but what do you think, what am I missing?

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Then you would ask yourself what is the addressable market of completely dumb millennials.

If they are spending $5000 per year over 25 transactions they are spending roughly, $200 per fortnight on APT payments

Why would they not just pay cash

APT Price at posting: $83.79 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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