WAGES GROWTH
Do you have any more precise numbers? Perhaps you have access to an index I don't know about? mmmmmm StefanF you seem a bit hostile mate. Perhaps you don't mean to be. Perhaps your energetic. I am genuinely analytically / intellectually interested in what you have to say.
in 1996 I was making about $20 PH as a single guy with no kids no wife no mortgage (no hecs debt). In a union protected manufacturing job. That factory and many others are now closed. So a direct comparison is difficult. Now-a-days a popular job might be. say deliver driver $20 per hour probably getting underpaid and ripped off for your super and you might be a subcontractor. Or aged care $22-27 PH if your getting properly paid +/- super. A lot more people doing low level, home care than high level in facility care. Thus a lot more at the $22. However a lot of these people are not getting their full pay ie to attend training or not getting their proper mileage allowance to drive from clients house to next clients house. So my anecdotal numbers are. No wage growth in absolute numbers terms 1996-2010.
So you introduce inflation (groceries, electricity, etc)
as part of real wages. Perhaps you have better training or better information than me.
1999-2000 GST first home buyers offset comes in house prices in my area move from $140,000 to $500,000 just say 3 X now in 1996 'affordable' / 'serviceable' mortgage would be 1/3
gross wages. but if the price of the house has tripled, and wages have not moved something is very wrong. I don't think this number is included in the headline inflation.
RBA says housing is 23% of the basket of goods. which is c50% less than what 'responsible lending' says (and that is disregarding the difference between gross and net wages).
I note
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/headline-inflation.asp and
https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/inflation-and-its-measurement.htmlin 1996 in my memory toll roads were a luxury, now they are a necessity. 1996 no GST.
So by my (farm boy) numbers,
1996 $20 per hour mass employment (manufacturing). 2019 `$20 per hour mass employment (aged care). (you might get $22 but your getting ripped on your millage allowance). One in five aged care people get say $27 if they are level 4 in the award.
In the mean time the cost of housing has trebled and that is 23-33% of your living costs. Tim tams went up in price
and got 19% less biscuits per pack!!!. https://www.qt.com.au/news/tim-tam-scam-fine-print-costing-you-biscuits/3184979/ they have gone up since 1996 and again 2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Tam (yes this is a humorous single example)
So I think, generally cost of living doubled.Do you have any more precise numbers? Perhaps you have access to an index I don't know about? As a foot note: Graduate lawyers make $20 an hour now with $30-70K in hecs debt having tragically lost 4-7 years of their life studying.
CREDIT demand / supplyOf course banks want to grow their balance sheets. We agree on that point. But can they? In a 'responsible lending world' post Royal Commission, with the gig economy, with low interest rates,
where are the credit worthy applicants for credit cards? The amount of direct labor to process and application vis the low quantity (up to 5k?) at low interest rates (9%?) compared to the old days of $10K, 19% over the phone, three questions. From the banks perspective it is not the gold mine is used to be. Especially with the direct labor on the management of 'financial hardship' clients.
If a bank wanted to grow its balance sheet it would merely need to buy into or wholesale fund a bank in an emerging economy. Do some property development finance in Philipines or finance industrial equipment in Thailand. Finance anything in Guyana - boom economy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/04/guyana-the-imf-thinks-this-country-will-see-growth-of-86percent-in-2020.htmlIf you work in a retail bank, and they can't get people to apply for credit cards, in my view, it will be because they process or the service is poor. Drug test staff, verbal and written comprehension testing for staff, mystery shop the staff. A 'dumb' / poorly trained / ignorant' staff member of a bank looks a lot like an
untrustworthy staff member. I spoke with 5 people at two banks today, can't get a coherent conversation about opening a super account for a staff member.
Graph below which I have previously posted. To me this graph says
'..more people than 'ever' before have obtained credit and then lost their credit worthyness...' which I say is due to the above, no absolute numerical wages growth and cost of living has doubled in 23 years.
Which to me (as a farm boy) says: real wages have halved. But again, I am genuinely interested in what you have to say about this. you might have better information than me. My logic may be flawed.
REASONS I believe in APT
1.0 'Sexy' melinials market, been discussed ad nauseum,
2.0 in a few short years melinials will be looking for home loans, and APT will have relationship and
DATA!3.0 Battlers, for every 'Sexy' melinial I recon there is a battler, 30 yo single mum who needs school uniforms. Or
4.0 Battler, 35 yo single chick who now has 1-2 kids, youngest is now at school and battler mum is at uni part time.
5.0 First law of retail finance: Battlers pay, spivs don't.
