DYOR GLTAH
1.0 I had to look up
beta:In finance, the beta (β or beta coefficient) of an investment is a measure of the risk arising from exposure to general market movements as opposed to idiosyncratic factors. The market portfolio of all investable assets has a beta of exactly 1. What do you say is the Beta of APT? Logic says if the market is up say 20% in 12 months and APT is up say $10 - $30 ie 300% the beta (cause -l , (causal) coefficient) is weak? https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/PsychofIntelNew.pdf
1.1 I used to teach basic mechanical engineering. I quickly realized that very, very few people can relate formulas to words. Mainly because the Australian high school education system is rubbish and not standardized across the country. And basically does not teach basic gramma. Most poor bastards can read a sentence then not understand what they are dividing by what or why. If we as a nation can not identify, subject, object, verb, noun, we, as a nation sure as hell can not use formulas, and we as a nation can not look after our super no can our 'advisers'.
1.2 I accept that the general consensus of people who know more than me about beta is that beta is strong. But IF beta is supposed to be a causal coefficient the simple test above indicates a problem. It's like: IF psychology works, send 100,00 psychologists to the middle east and have peace by sunrise? or psychology only works in very limited circumstances?? perhaps Beta as a useful tool only works in such limited circumstances that is less helpful than street smarts?
1.3 If we belt this idea around a bit... (I like to 'throw acid' on my own ideas). If we take a lab science, hypothesis null hypothesis approach....
1.3.1 If market up 20% APT up 300%, ? (rolling 12 months)
1.3.2 If APT up 300% then market up 20%,?(rolling 12 months)
1.3.3 If global QE continues and that money makes it way to ASX then market could go up 20% next year (rolling 12 months), thus probable that APT goes up 300%
1.4.1 Andredamus1 does cool graphs, if GMV, and merchants and customers (end users) keep growing hang on. In any event, what else would be a better deal to invest in? When you look at the prospects of each individual share (assuming our options are limited to ASX), TYR or MDI ? maybe. 2.0 Then I had to look up:
idiosyncratic;
adjective relating to idiosyncrasy; peculiar or individual."she emerged as one of the great, idiosyncratic talents of the nineties"3.0 I could not find anything about 'G'.
Perhaps you would be kind enough to provide a link? I do not have a straight finance degree.
4.0 My grand father was 'O, G' in the great depression and lent money and came out of it OK. He had a post office so all his overheads were covered. He lent small amounts, either against future income (next sheep shearing contract) or for commercial purposes, if only you had an 'X' machine you could get that contract with some work and cash flow..... it looks a lot like APT to me. if shops like Queensland Trade Tools too APT it would be less sexy but more recession proof. Perhaps they need another branch for big hairy tradies.
5.0 I have had to write off a few fees, charges and interest, but over time never made a net, hard dollar, loss on my lending operations. I have been lending money since I was about 14.
6.0 I think a recession is coming. I have thought that for years. I picked the timing and depth of the 2008 down turn perfectly, but ultimately for wrong reasons.
My wrong and irrelevant data gave me the right answer. It gets to a point where you are so immersed in data that you can just feel it. Like when the kids are
too quiet.
7.0 I made 3 bets that relied on recessions coming and APT is the only that has paid off so far. one is down say 30% (PNC) and one is treading water, with big blue sky (not listed).
GLTAH, DYOR,
