Afterpay Valuation, page-4507

Thanks for pointing out the fact US customer number were already 7.5M in November. I went back through my workings this morning and found my fault of using a 5/9 ratio (from ann APT has 5 mil active US customers from 9 mil sign up) for 1M (as mentioned in the US media release ) new sign ups to get active customer number not realising in fact 1M additional was already active. I decided to add 200K extra for Xmas period. I feel there is a good chance to push 10B in sales but didnt want to push my numbers on hope only. With rounding my sales estimate would also have been 9.9B but decided to use 9.8 to be conservative.

Underlining Sales $ 9.8 billion
--- ANZ $4.5B
--- US $4.6B*
--- UK $0.7B

Active Customer Numbers 13.2 Million
--- ANZ 3.6M
--- US 8.1M*
--- UK 1.5M

Active Merchants 73K
--- ANZ 52K
--- US 16K
--- UK 5K

If underlining sales is close to 9.8* (or better) APT will be on target to smash its mid term target to achieve 20B by
FY22 by over a year.

I dont see many upside surprises is ANZ region as I think critical mass is being reached here.

US many have a positive beat in expectations of higher numbers, while UK may have a positive beat in terms of percentages.


I welcome other opinions and would love to see what other people are expecting from the half yearly report.