APT (ASX) Afterpay Valuation

Originally posted by pastperformer: ↑

Today/this week may end up being one of those "God that was obvious" investment moments. Let's have a look at some of the facts we can verify today - 26/02/2021

1. We have record levels of stimulus in the system with another 1.9 trillion being voted on tonight. This is likely to end up being spent on retail goods. This has proven to promote BNPL sign ups and use by new and existing clients. Free marketing for APT and brings users back to the platform all on the government tab. This will also help lower loss margins.
2. We have record low rates (At a central bank level). Even at 1.5% on the 10 year, we are still lower than pre-covid of 1.75%. Tech companies were still growing and accelerating issuing debt at those levels pre-covid.
3. APT just raised $1.5bil at 0% for 5 years at a premium to the current SP4. The HY report showed APT clients spend more frequently on the platform the longer they have been on the platform. So as long as APT can attract as many users as possible now, they eventually may turn there book over 29x per year based on current 5 year averages.
5. APT are nearly FCF positive, as one of the fastest growing tech companies on the planet.
6. You can buy APT at 11% discount to what U.S investors were literally choking each other to get set on last night
7. APT is now an internationally recognised Verb.
8. When we have inflation, guess what, earnings expectations also increase. If the economy is in healthy shape, people start spending more, so why should we expect APT to earn less or be worth less? APT can still grow into it's valuation, bear in mind bond yields may be getting way way ahead of themselves. Until we see the CPI numbers in the U.S there is no reason to be concerned yet.
10. Yellen and Powell are yelling from the roof tops that they will not lift rates, the recovery is uneven, and they will continue to support households as long as it takes. More money, less risk in financial markets, great conditions for consumer facing tech THIS IS THE BIGGEST SIGN POST YOU WILL EVER GET.

Expand

Agree, it will be a great buy at $95.

DYOR