All the stars aligned:
1. Pretext- Nato encroachment
2. Economic goals- Ukraine was developing newly discovered natural gas and oil fields, and was charging exorbitant prices for gas transit
3. Idealogical- Putin is coming to the end of his reign, and he wants to restore the Russian Empire.
I'm not a Russian apologist. I absolutely abhor what's going on.
My point is for a psychopath like Putin, it is entirely a rational choice.
As for your last point, no he's not a genius. He totally underestimated the western response and overestimated his own corrupt military.
Think before you shoot.
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