Yes AGE gained 4 pips to finish on 5.9c. Our volume was decent, one of the better volumes of recent times, just over 19m shares traded. Today was a buying day for me, picked up a fair few AGE at 5.5c.
ASX U Stocks were mostly in green. Of the 19 stocks that I track, average gain was 3.5%.
Overnight US U stocks also did well. The ETF of URNM/URA were mostly flat but other stocks gained between 1 to 3%. The U Future lost 5c to finish on $49.45
What next -
Yesterday on the back of US/China tensions, the indices were mostly down. Although the indices did go thru a range, but eventually DOW finished over 1%, SP 500 around 0.7% and Nasdaq marginally in red.
I had mentioned about 2 key indicators - SP 500 had a further fall and volatility index VIX moved higher - so both not in favour.
Personally it was a big buy day for me. Of the available funds, I used 50% of my funds to buy a large number of stocks today. So why did I buy when indicators are still not in favour of what I wanted? Yesterday's trading in US stocks gave me a signal that there is a chance we may see Phase 2 of bounce/reversal - no guarantee though. Yesterday when all the indices were flying deep into red, there was clear tension around US/China with Pelosi visit - one thing stood out. Most stocks I follow across couple of sectors, nearly all were green. So those stocks that I am interested in were not buying the gloom and red - they were ready to march on. This was happening on a fairly decent red day, coming of the back of another red day - that was very positive. In the morning I was able to pick up a good number of stocks at a fair price. ASX followed US trend, so though indices were red today, most stocks I follow were in green/stable.
Lot of analysts are still very bearish, calling this a bear market rally. The charts around say SP 500 is still following the pattern of March (and in smaller scale May), where there was a decent rise, but after reaching previous high it slided downwards. This I am keeping an eye on and if I feel its happening, then will exit immediately with my trading stocks. There are many other analysts who are positive and they feel we should have good gains in short term. The narrative is similar to end of June - more bear, few bulls - but we did have a bounce of 35% - which is a very good amount. I think we are still not out of the woods so caution is required. But its no point becoming super bear when we have already lost huge amount - most recent converts to this super bear become more like a fanatic. One Phase of gain around 35% has already happened, there could be another one to miss. So caution is good but I feel becoming fanatic not so, but its individual risk/reward so has to be respected. But lots of analysts still calling for big drops ahead, so please dyor.
Another point was made in one of the threads I post, that due to my posting, shares are not able to sustain gains. I have been clear that I do hold a portion for long which I don't trade, and a portion I do short-term trade. If I do some short-term trades and I only post in few stocks, then outside of where I post, all other stocks would have sustained gains - but is that so?. I follow a large number of stocks and compare them in weekly report. if you look across them, there will be a pattern - for rise and falls - 60-70% go together, some do better, some worse - which is normal for a large range of stocks. So those who feel about my short term trading, please don't think so. I do not have the power to change the market, sector or stock - I am just trying to see what is happening, and possibly follow the trend.
So what will happen tonight? US Futures are in slight green, but again they don't count much. Volatility index had risen to 24+, but has come down below 24 now, but still well above Friday's number. The cryptos are coming - they are not raring but in positive mood. Bitcoin above 23k now. Surprisingly Gold and silver declined. 10 year bond is rising again and is still inverted - recession traits. China may do something - world is watching what happens next. Again difficult to call. At this stage if US/china does not escalate much, I feel US markets may go for a green. Will that be a big green? At this stage even if there is no loss is good - stabilising - any good gains will start looking like our next phase of rise is on. Lets hope it happens that way. All the best.
AGE Price at posting:
5.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)