AGE chart, page-2284

A positive sentiment leading up to a crucial day

Yes AGE gained 4 pips to finish on 6.8c. Decent volume of over 30m shares traded. Picked up a few more at 6.6c today.

ASX U stocks had a good today. Of the 25 stocks that I track, average gain was 7%.

U Futures still not coming to the party though. It lost $1.10 to finish on $52.40.

What next -

I feel we are coming up to a very important trading day tonight. On Friday US indices after making a decent gain of over 1%, suddenly collapsed and lost over 1% in the end. One of the days that bears openly showed their hand. Still very high level of shorting/put options in place - will they be overcome?

As I have mentioned before, key for me is for SP 500 to hold the 3900 level which sets on a trendline. On Thursday and Friday, it touched 3903 and 3906 and rebounded. It needs to hold this level. If it fails 3800 and then June bottom 3636 are in play. First thing for indices is to get over 50 moving day averages (which is within range of couple of percent) and ultimately 200 moving day average - which is over 4300. A lot of chartists/analysts have turned bearish, especially after last week's action. We need a good thrust so that sentiment changes - and sentiment plays a good role in how trading happens.

Personally I was still buying as 3900 is not breached. On weekend I had thought I will go defensive if 3900 does not hold, lets see. One sector looks bit stronger than other, so did a good rotation into that sector in last 1 week.

So what will happen tonight? US Futures are in green, but there is long time till markets open and they could be playing games till then. Asian markets were largely green, but some red, including ASX which lost 0.4%. Cryptos are still very tentative, but not panicking. Bitcoin just below 20k. On Friday the US indices dropped a lot, but surprisingly the Volatility index VIX actually dropped slightly - which was a good sign. A lot of punters keeping eye on 10 year/2 year yield - they have been rising, but not proportional to how much indices dropped. Manufacturing and other PMI figures tonight which may provide direction. Powell is going to speak tomorrow night, again he can change market direction. He has turned very hawkish, looking for credibility which was lost last year. So will we hold 3900 and inch forward? Its 50/50 at this stage - short-term its looking possible, but medium term bears still in control. Lets hope we get some green, a big one would be a good one after 3 weeks of decline. All the best.