Second rejection of key level - is the current rally over?Yes...

Second rejection of key level - is the current rally over?

Yes AGE lost 1 pip to finish on 5.2c. Our volume was decent without being too high, just over 13m shares traded. Another finish at 5.2

ASX U stocks slid with the market. Of the 25 stocks that I track, average loss was 2%.

Overnight US U stocks also lost direction, with average loss of around 3.5%. U Futures still at $53.35 - so no changes for 3 days.

What next -

Yesterday another day when US indices played with green and red. But trading was similar to previous day. SP 500 lost around 0.6%. ASX too followed suit with loss of around 1%.

Yesterday I had mentioned that if the rally does not continue, then a major reason could be the big tech stocks which are struggling. And as we see, many of these tech giants are struggling and bringing down indices. Some losing 20-30% value in 1 day, you would think it would be a speccy for this drops in a day.

Now we have had 2 days when indices have retreated from the resistance level. The second negative thing was that both the days SP 500 finished on the day's lows. So from that perspective, its not looking great. SP 500 needs to hold 3780, but may gap down on opening. Next level is 3700/3720 - and if it cannot hold that, we may suddenly be around 3600 level. Stocks have started retreating towards the earlier trading range for a number of stocks - as if they know what is in store.

Something which is holding the indices is same as I mentioned last couple of days - 10 year yield decreasing, dollar index decreasing, VIX still below 28.

So what will happen tonight? US Futures again in red - bad Amazon data dragging it down. Asian markets mostly red, big drops in some regions. Cryptos have lost their enthusiasm. Bitcoin looking to hold 20k and lost the big gain they made. Volatility still in good range. Tonight key PCE data which may provide strong direction to market. Two other things are not favourable - its Friday, and US markets have wild big nights, mostly dropping big. Secondly, 75% of time economic data is announced, markets have tanked as they are not favourable. One of the reasons ASX stocks was looking for cover today. So overall it is not looking good. But, yields, dollar index and VIX can support. Apple still doing fine. PCE data for a change can come in favourable. So although probability is not good, its still possible market can take into stride bad earnings with other good data and may do a big Friday green. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.