AGE Daily Report, page-125

Was that another failure on the dreaded trend line?
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Yes AGE lost 2 pips to finish at 3.9c. Our volume was very low, just over 3.6m shares traded. Low volume indicates not many sellers but still weak price action reaching towards the lower zone of 3.8c. Yesterday there was second failure on the SP 500 on a strong descending trendline, to manage risk I did let go some shares at 4 around 4% loss. Hopefully if we have a good day, I can get back in as important is to get a bigger gain and smaller losses.
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ASX U stocks were generally weak, may be spooked by US U stock behaviour. Of the 28 stocks that I track, average loss was around 2%.
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Overnight US U stocks were very weak. Not sure what it was, but average loss was over 4%. U Future after a fairly decent drop yesterday, lost another 55c to finish at $48.95 - now sliding down fast.
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What next:
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Yesterday US markets had a very bad day. SP 500 fell around 1.5% to finish on 3928, near the day's low. ASX though did not get fazed by that overnight action, finished around 0.6% up.
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Yesterday SP 500 made another dash towards the very strong trendline from which we have been rejected all of 2022. Yesterday it went around 4015 and turned back. Day before yesterday also it reached around 4015 and turned back. So it has done that for 2 days, which is not a good sign. SP 500 is now close to doing a retest of 3900 which I have been saying we need to hold.
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So now we are in very critical phase after couple of small rejections from the dreaded trend line. There are a few possibilities:

Bull case

• We just rise from here and cross 4000/4030/4100
• We test 3900 successfully, hold it, may be consolidate if required, then move towards 4000/4030/4100

Bear Case

• We fail to hold 3900 and drift downwards
• We hold 3900 for now, make another attempt at 4030 and fail again, then falling back rapidly from there

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Chop Case

• We keep trading in this range between 3900 and 4000 for sometime and wait for another strong economic/technical data to push us from here.
• All of December we did similar thing between 3800 and 3900

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Yesterday a very good PPI data - Inflation taming. Not so good data for Retails sales - Economy weakening. What did market makers do - they are no longer bothering about Inflation, all those bearish people have changed the narrative to Recession. And whether we like it or not, they are winning, for now. A big fall on SP 500 after getting great PPI data was not warranted - but it did happen. So we need to respect that.
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Yesterday was one of the best set up including PPI data for us to cross that 4030 trend line on SP 500. Failure of doing that, I was very disappointed. There is still a chance, but probability of that decreased after yesterday. The die hard bears who have been insisting now for over 6 months that we will reach around 3250, felt that this is the beginning of that final bottom.
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Personally I have been quite positive for some time and was hoping that we break 4030 on SP 500. Last time on 1st December when we had done double top and retreated from 4100 (when most were saying it will not happen), I had promised myself to keep emotions out of it and respect the price action. So for now I have again become risk averse and let go many of my trading stocks - have kept my long term stocks. Things can change, even tonight, and I will get in, but for now I want to see what happens from here, before committing for swing trades. Had to let go some with break even, small loss, but few had good gains - so fortunately was still ahead, but not much.
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Lead indicators - Yields fell big time - but all those market makers are changing the narrative from Inflation to Recession - hence that did not help. Dollar Index remained where it was - more or less. Volatility Index VIX made another 5% gain and is now above 20. Yesterday I had written that below 20 is good for bullish markets, we have lost that temporarily.
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So what will happen tonight? US futures in slight red. Asian markets mixed. Few economic data around housing, jobs etc. Also Earnings reports - big eye on Netflix tonight. A very positive thing would be to test 3900 and bounce from there strongly, that will certainly mean another test of 4030 in short term. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best