AGE 1.92% 5.3¢ alligator energy limited

I am not sure I should provide confidence when I myself are not...

  1. 4,306 Posts.
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    I am not sure I should provide confidence when I myself are not that confident. Unless you are being sarcastic.

    The reason I do daily/weekly reports here is that at some stage I did hold lot of U stocks and had hopes - and still have hope for future. But I exited nearly all my positions first time around September last year and stopped doing the diary. In the last 6 months I only once more bought some which too I exited few weeks back - as I have been writing in my posts.

    The most obvious reason I am not confident is something which is very obvious. That is the Share Price of ASX U stocks. Many of them are within 10/20% of their yearly lows. Average drop from high is around 50% with many having dropped 60 to 75% from their highs. This means that to just go back to the all time high, the SP has to gain over 200% for many stocks including AGE. So just gives the quantum of big task ahead.

    The second thing is general markets. Unless the general markets get out of this bearish phase, most resource stocks which are usually risk-on assets will struggle to move a decent way unless we get out of this phase. There could be some bounces on the way but they may not be sustained. And the general market is so overpowering at this stage - even at daily level, that we may not be go against it, unless some very big catalyst comes - eg U Spot suddenly starts rising and moves to 60/70/80 - something like that may be needed to overcome it. One of the reasons I write a lot about general markets in my daily/weekly reports.

    Over a period of time I realised one thing which I have been repeating every couple of months for last one year. Unless there is a Supply squeeze, markets will not make a major move. Even with increase of a number of reactors coming up, the problem is secondary supply. That secondary supply nobody knows how much is there and when it will reach a stage to cause a squeeze - is it 2023/24/25 - the data is just not there to come up with a timeline. But for last few years, there has been enough on the secondary supply to absorb any more demands. We had hope that U spot price could be another indicator to give indications of a squeeze. U Spot has barely moved in last one year. It is also supposed to be thinly traded, so those interested could keep a lid without much effort.

    One reason I continue to post is I believe that one day that squeeze will come. And when it comes, I should be ready. Doing all these daily/weekly reports lets me keep on top of what is happening in U sector. I also look closely at 28 U stocks, that also gives me insight if some want to break the pack.

    As I caution, I am no expert in general markets or even on U sector. There are supposed to be lot of influencers in U sector who may have a better idea. So my analysis/thinking could be wrong, so best to dyor. I wish you well in whatever you do and hopefully you understand my perspective slightly better.
 
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Last
5.3¢
Change
0.001(1.92%)
Mkt cap ! $205.0M
Open High Low Value Volume
5.2¢ 5.3¢ 5.2¢ $181.5K 3.475M

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No. Vol. Price($)
1 180000 5.2¢
 

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Price($) Vol. No.
5.3¢ 1579955 6
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Last trade - 16.10pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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