AGE Daily Report, page-209

Will job data give the necessary push?
.
Yes AGE remained flat to finish at 3.5c. Our volume was very low, similar to yesterday, just over 2.7m shares traded. Nothing dramatic today, playing the range.
.
ASX U stocks had a decent day today though not all stocks gained. Of the 28 stocks that I track, average gain was 2%.
.
Overnight US U stocks again very weak - average loss around 3% - yesterday also it lost 3%. Still no change in US Future price, stuck at $50.35 - doesn't look like any trading happening in recent times
.
What next:
.
Yesterday I had said it would be good for SP 500 to stay above 4100 but if not stay above very important level at 4070/4080. It could not stay above 4100 but did rebound from 4072 which was the only positive thing yesterday. ASX SP 500 finishing at 4090 down around 0.25%. ASX was in red the whole day and finishing down similar, around 0.3%.
.
As I mentioned yesterday, markets are very indecisive at this stage. Both buyers and sellers are not able to cross some key levels. Buyer and seller exhaustion is been observed indicating the uncertain stage. Some economic data, an event or recession (yes/no) could provide some direction. Tonight is Non-Farm Pay Roll and Unemployment data. That could create some movement. If not, next week is CPI data. If not, then Earning Reports are coming soon. If that also fails we may have to wait for Interest Rate decision and more importantly Mr Powell to provide direction.
.
From numbers perspective, SP 500 to stay above 4100. Going below to hold 4070/4080 level or even stay above 4000. Also yesterday again a market rotation to defensive sectors were seen - an aspect of weakening economy and recession fears. Many again calling for a top around early 4100 mark. As I have been writing for a number of weeks, I had said that there is a good chance we will reach early 4100, which we did - but after that I am not sure. But the thing that has not gone well is that even though indices have risen, most risk-on sectors like Uranium/Lithium etc could hardly rise a little from their bottom - so not really participated in the rally. And now we are told rally may possibly be over. Its like going to a movie. lots of ads, trailers of other movies in the beginning. After the movie started and went only a small way, we are told that movie may be over now. Oh well, lets hope it does not turn out that way. At least one day I am sure we will watch the full movie.
.
Personally as I wrote yesterday, it looks like it is time to be defensive. I still feel that there is a good chance of a hit towards 4300/4350, so am playing that - but only with specific stocks and sectors that are doing okay for now. I am still wary of SP 500 losing 4100 and going down big time, it has done a few times and am very warry of that - so watching that carefully.
.
Indicators are still favourable - VIX, Yields and Dollar Index still in play for a rally up to 4300/4350. Sentiment too has turned to Greed. Only 75% Twitter gang feel this rally is to fail in near vicinity and markets to go down considerably.
.
So what will happen tonight? US Futures in slight red. Asian markets largely red, some big drops as well. Markets are closed tomorrow but open on Monday in US. Tonight Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment data before market opens. The sluggish market is looking for a nudge - maybe tonight. It would be good to get back above 4100 again. It is a very critical number and has represent tops a number of times - so to stay above that will be very bullish. Will that happen? Lets hope so. Enjoy your Easter break and all the best.