AGE Daily Report, page-338

Losing momentum?

Yes AGE lost 1 pip to finish at 3.5c. Our volume was moderate - just over 10m shares traded. It was looking good couple of days back, but now back to our usual trading range with a touch of 3.4.
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ASX U stocks were generally weak on the back of general markets. Of the 28 stocks that I track, average loss was around 2%.
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Overnight US U stocks were mixed and remained flat on average - no gain or loss. U Future steady at $56.75
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So after a good start, then a lull, now going back to home base. Some stocks are still above their pre-levels, but a number of stocks have started retreating. As I had written couple of days back, U sector is not yet decoupled from general markets. The general markets are down and hence this decline. There is a chance general markets could go a bit more lower, so lets see how stocks deal with it.
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What next:
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SP 500 lost around 0.75% to reach 4404.. ASX too red in similar range.
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Last few weeks since we hit 4600 on SP 500, I have been writing that there may be a good chance of a pullback. The number I have been talking about is 4300/4350 on SP 500 - a decline of around 6% - so we could still go down another couple of percent. After US rating decline, in 2011 also, SP 500 had declined by 6%. Also the level 4300/4350 is a zone many analysts too have been talking about. But if 4300 does not hold, we could be in a bigger bother.
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So why this decline? Technicals were already talking about a pullback. Then US rating decline, now banks possibly rating down, Interest rate rising including talk from FOMC minutes, Yields increasing - 10 year yield at the highest level since 2008, Dollar index increasing, Michael Burry shorting - so a number of factors. On top of that Options Expiry on Friday - the max pain is around 4390 - so if it finishes there the market makers will make maximum gain and lot of options will expire worthless.
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Lead Indicators all pointing towards further decline. VIX, Yields and Dollar Index rising - not so good. Bitcoin also in weakness, lost key level of 29k.
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So what will happen tonight? Again mixed opinion by analysts, in short term many feel we could play 4300/4350, but it may not happen tonight. There is a chance of playing up towards 4430/4440 and then may be. Lets hope we see some bounce tonight. All the best..