Weekly Review U Stocks - 11th Feb 2022
(Was away for a week, was just about to trade and could not do any posts - a welcome respite may be for some from my daily ramblings 
. Have started to put the weekly report in a new thread for weekly reports. This is so that I or anyone else interested can come at one place to look through how we tracked weekly. We can continue to use other threads as we do)
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of other U stocks besides AGE. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis.
Here is the Figures and Charts that I would be elaborating:
Weekly Review
Key Observations:
Weekly Percentage change
- Overall it was a good week, but would have been a great week but for Friday
- Across 15 U stocks I am tracking -the average percentage gain was 4%. Last week there was gain of 2%. So getting back to consecutive weekly gain.
- After 2 weekly losses , now we have had 2 weeks of gain
- AGE lost 1% for the week. Last week AGE had gained 21%, so a small loss there after big gain.
- In previous weeks, stocks which were part of the Global fund did better than others.
- This week there were 3 stocks which were in negative territory - AGE, AEE and EL8 - they were part of Global Fund
Yearly Percentage change
- Most stocks are in red for the year
- Average loss for 15 stocks I track is now 5%. Last week it was loss of 8%, so small gain there
- For the current year, only AEE, AGE and EL8 in positive territory. Again to be noted they are part of Global fund inclusion
- AGE is doing well with a gain of 24% for the year. Last week AGE was ahead with 25% gain, so a small drop there
- Last week AEE leading the pack, but now its second with 17%
- BMN has the biggest lost for the year with 19% decline
Percentage Drop from Highest SP reached after Boom Start
- All stocks much below their highest SP
- Average drop is 43% (last week was 44% - so slight gain here)
- AGE has dropped 41%. So now we are nearly in line with others and good to see AGE below average
IMPORTANT NOTE
- Explorers are most volatile. So chances are if things go well, they may provide highest gain. Conversely, if things don't go well, they may have larger drops compared to others
- So an individuals risk appetite should determine which U stocks they want, based on their expectation of belief in the boom
- Shares are in slight uptrend for last 2 weeks - a welcome sign after a few weeks of decline
- Shares included in Global Funds ETFs have done better than other U stocks
- For U stocks, after daily declines most of the days, we have had 2 "incidents" which has given us a boost. The Kazakhstan unrest and Cameco quarterly this week. They have provided a much needed boost otherwise shares were languishing
- There has been heavy buying by Sprott but that has not made much impact to Spot U price - yet
Personally
- I did some rebalancing of my stocks this week
- I moved some stocks to shares that were languishing - for the short term.
- I know most of you are long and many just hold AGE, but for me (and maybe few others) it is many U stocks. So I keep rebalancing and trading as we go.
- Before this week AGE was 40% of my U stocks, with 2 others at 15% each, and rest 30%.
- After this week I have AGE at 25% and moved 15% to one which I feel is lagging most for the year. Before crucifying me, just listed to my reasoning. When AGE again reached 8.1c this week, this was the 3rd time it had reached there in few months (8.1 on 13th Jan, 8.4 on 9th Nov) and not moved forward. I sold that 15% at 7.9c. I reasoned that in short term for AGE to gain another 50%, it would have to cross its ATH and be somewhere around 12c. Other stock if it makes a gain of 50% would be still 30% below its ATH. Based on probability I thought I have a better chance short term there. I could be wrong and have been before but basing my theory on probability and gut feel, I went with that. Its the same probability the charters use - eg 2 charters appeared this week and there were so many positive indicators for a big rise, but it didn't happen because of a bad news on Friday, so they/me can get it wrong sometimes. I am still very bullish on AGE and will be looking to move back to that 40% hopefully after making some short term gains elsewhere. Also thought that in short term if I make a mistake, AGE by itself cannot move very high unless the whole sector is moving, so I will still have some gains in that share, may be not as much as AGE. In another way that I look, it also spreads the risk. So as I have said before, I like trading and this is part of my trading strategy - hope it works but I will not be very surprised if it doesn't.
Weekly Ahead
SP
- After a large gain last week we had a small decline this week.
- The key point for me is that after touching 8.1c this week we finished at 6.8c - so that has come as a surprise and a very big drop
- The key numbers for me, based on trading pattern and numbers that I follow are - 5.9c , 6.7c, 7.8c. Last week I said we need to stay ahead of 6.7c and possibly cross 7.8c - both the events did happen, again I got lucky there
- Last week I wrote I was hoping we finish in 7s, we nearly made it, again we barely missed it
- The key for me at this stage is to protect 6.7c, because if it can't hold, based on the previous trading that has happened it may start playing in 5.9c to 6.7c zone, so don't want to go there - again
- What we have to be careful about - it does not look like happening this time, but something to keep in mind - in case. After reaching 8.4c on 9th Nov, it finally made a bottom of 4.8c on 6th Dec and then slowly moved up. On 13th Jan it touched 8.1c and then made another bottom of 5.2c on 28th Jan. Its very disheartening when that happens - I know for long term it does not make difference, but its not a good feeling for short term. Hopefully it will not happen this time as some of the U catalysts and our drilling will keep it upfloat.
- DOW/ASX is still very volatile. Lots of talks still around corrections/bear/recession etc.
U Futures Price
- Price has moved at 43.95 - a loss of 5c from last week of 44. So now four weeks of decline
- During the week price had decreased further down, but we had 2 good days. Small price increases but in right direction now.
- I feel we price will hover around this level
- Other factors will need to drive the Spot price, Sprott taking over fund, NYSE listing, EU taxonomy etc
- For short term next week, I can't see any catalyst good enough to give a big boost - only a sudden change will bring something dramatic, else it will hover here
Prediction
- Although the volatility has decreased, but I feel we will still see some volatility this week
- Friday DOW had another 500 points decline. Biden may talk to Putin on weekend and war situation may ease. But if it doesn't, we may start Monday badly and hopefully shrug off the fear by evening
- I feel it will be a topsy turvy week and we may see some wild swings
- Last week I wrote "For AGE and few entrants to Global Fund this week, it will be a very interesting week, As I mentioned, most of the stocks which are in positive territory for the year are those which are part of Global Fund buying. My understanding is that on Friday all buying/selling was done. So what happens to these stocks which had good buying - will they go strongly, remain steady or start declining and get to the rest of the pack now - Something to ponder and keep an eye on" - this week the 3 shares that had a small decline were AGE, AEE, EL8 - so still to keep an eye on
- AGE still has a local factor of drill, so hoping that continues to keep us in front
- Some macro announcement, say around taxonomy etc would be good - sector needs a catalyst and boost. We got this from Cameco this week, but our gains have withered away from another macro around US inflation and now Ukraine situation. So we need couple of catalysts to come in a row to make the gain - and keep it. Otherwise it will just wither away. Lets hope we see some this week.
(20min delay)
