AGE WEEKLY REPORT, page-10

Weekly Review U Stocks - 18th Mar 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of other U stocks besides AGE. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis.

Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.

Here is the Figures and Charts that I would be elaborating:





Weekly Review

Key Observations:


Weekly Percentage change

• Stocks were in decline this week after a bumper week before with rise of 23%,
• All stocks were in decline this week except GTR
• Across 15 U stocks I am tracking -the average percentage loss was 7%. Last week there was gain of 23%
• AGE lost 3% for the week, so better than average
• Very Notable - Stocks which are having CR are declining most (AEE - 19%, BOE - 15%, VMY - 12%). This is one of the reasons I do an analysis on Cash Balance to see if CR is going to happen in short term
• GTR was big gainer for the week on 17% on the back of drilling completion. Results are due in 2 to 3 weeks - something to keep an eye on

Yearly Percentage change

• Second time in my Weekly report that U stocks are ahead for the Year (first time was last week) - a very significant milestone
• Average gain for 15 stocks I track is now 5%. Last week it was gain of 14%, so a loss here
• For the current year, stocks in red are PDN, BMN, TOE, VAL and 92E - For me PDN/BMN are significant from trading perspective. PDN looks to be lagging, BMN, don't know why I keep getting felling that it is held back, possibly due to a CR in short term
• AGE is doing well with a gain of 42% for the year. Last week AGE was ahead with 45% gain, so slight loss there
• AGE is highest gainer for the year. Even last week AGE was the highest gainer

Percentage Drop from Highest SP reached after Boom Start

• Many stocks much below their highest SP
• Average drop is 36% (last week was 31% - so some loss here).
• AGE has dropped 32%. So now we are nearly in line with others

MPORTANT NOTE

• Shares after a retreat for consolidation are in slow ascend now
• Most stocks well below ATH, so fair way to go
• Macro U is getting stronger every week. Stocks may have a lag, but will catch up sometime
• U Futures after hitting $60, then declining to $55, and now gaining, means the jump to $60 was not a false start - very good chance that it will stabilise around here
• Five stocks are still nearly 50% down (92E, DLC, GTR, TOE, VAL). What is common for them - Small caps. Why are they still behind - either they ran up too much in September, like an abnormal rise, or they may have more scope now to have a run relative to others - pick your choice
• For U stocks, after daily declines most of the days, we have had 3 "incidents" which has given us a boost. The Kazakhstan unrest and Cameco quarterly this week. The Ukraine war has been the third catalyst - the strongest and most sustainable by the looks of it
• The most crucial aspect of boom is Supply/Demand. There was a good rise in U prices and U stock prices on the back of Ukraine war catalyst - but still no good data available around the supply/demand. I think we will need it for much higher gains which many of us are anticipating
• In September run when spot U price reached $50, all stocks made their highest SP ATH. This time spot U price has reached $60 (20% more than last time), but average stocks are 36% below their September ATH (so a differential of nearly 50% between spot price and ATH, in the negative) - why is that, something important to note. Does it mean that the spot U price is losing its ability alone to move all stocks in line with it in terms of percentage gains. Or are the stocks lagging and they will catch up. If spot U price alone is not able to drag all stocks (or can only have limited drawing action), then we have to think what else we need. Also what happens if spot U price reaches $80 (33% gain). How much gain will U stocks have - more than 33% or much less than that (only considering spot U price impact)
• The most important info for sustained rise is Supply/Demand - there is not much good information out there. So runs can happen on expectations, hopes, spot U price, rumours, etc but any sustained rise may require that info. Its a tough choice - if you wait for that info to make an entry/load up more, stocks SP may have already run ahead in anticipation so gains will be less later. But if you get in but later info comes that there is no deficit for next 5 years or so, so the gains may come much later. A difficult choice - something each one has to decide for themselves

U Futures Price

• After hitting a high of $60.40 on previous Thursday, last week it closed at exactly $60
• Then we had some decline towards $55, but last 2 days have been good gains - yesterday it gained 90c to finish on $57.25
• My gut feel though I could be wrong - I am sticking to the target of $60 stabilised for some time. Next target is $80 and I feel we may need more info for that. If it does run to $80, there is a good chance shares will rise as well, but the danger is of the fall. But its all new territory and anything can happen. Again individual risk/reward in play. Please not I am talking short-term for trading perspective, long holders it may not matter, one day it should get to 80, even if it falls, good chance it may rise again

Personally

• After selling on last rise and then buying on dip, I am ready for next round of short-term trading. My long term shares are in bottom drawer - for now
• GTR - Got out of it at 2.7c yesterday. Had loaded up heaps at 2.2c. Reason for getting out - I feel there are still 2 to 3 weeks for results and in beteen there can be some bad days for U stocks, so I may get a chance to buy lower - but I could be wrong as its looking strong
• BOE - Buying up more BOE. Due to CR at 2.15, price is depressed. Also share purchase upto $20k may happen in April for which I am also available. I feel once this CR share pressure goes, it may have a big rise - preparing for that
• TOE/BMN - I am not trying to hold for more than couple of days - I get a feeling CR is coming, though I could be wrong
• PDN - I have built a high holding - keeping it for now, not trading
• 92E, VAL - somehow looking week, so trying to limit my shares to 1 lot
• AEE - still has an overhang of CR at 25c. I am building up a position as I feel it may be depressed, bought fair few this week at 26
• EL8 - In first run I had said it had overshot to 67c and I got out. I did another trade between 55 to 65. Trying another one same range. My thinking that it has overshot in first one has come out correct and it is struggling since then to go beyond that
• LOT - Made a ATH of 38.2 week before, I think it had overshot, had bought some at 31.5c, got out at 36c, still hold little
• VMY - I have been trading cautiously, big profit taking of 17c shares has not yet happened I feel
• AGE - have done couple of trades between 7 to 8, but still holding some trading shares (and a lot of long shares)
• Please DYOR and I can and have been wrong before

Cash Balance Analysis for CR

• Last week I had mentioned about AEE doing a CR.
• This week BOE announced they are doing CR at 2.15c.
• There are few others in my list (keeping here for reference). Highlighted ones I feel
• It helps in trading - to build a position or to see how high it can go - has worked out for me till now

Weekly Ahead

SP

• Luckily last cycle of rise/fall/rise I have been able to pick up. My thinking now is that there may be a slow rise rather than dramatic jump, though some days volatility may come
• The key numbers for me, based on trading pattern and numbers that I follow are - 6.7c, 7.8c. and 9.2. We finished right on my number 7.8c on Friday.
• The key for me at this stage is to stay above 7.8, even if its a consolidation and does not immediately get towards 9.2.
• An eye to keep - We have had 5 rises from 5s to 8s in last few months. This is 5th rise and still continuing. We reached 8.1c, 8.4c and 8.1c, 8.1c last 4 times. This will be our 5th rise from 5s (as on Friday it touched 5.8c), currently has reached 8.3c . Need to keep an eye whether it will again fizzle out in early 8s or this time move towards 9s. Next number for me is 9.2c.
• URNM fund will shortly come into picture, something to keep an eye on
• DOW/ASX is still very volatile. But U stocks are sustaining and seem to have decoupled from it
• U Futures price to keep an eye on

Prediction

• Volatility is reducing in U stocks but still in ASX
• U market has now confirmed that it can decouple from general market.
• My gut feel - This time it will be a slow rise
• Due to volatility, we may get one big rise day/one big fall day
• ASX U stocks are trailing US U stocks in a big way - very perplexing and something not good. Don't know why - will it always be lagging or it will catch up. ASX U market is become very conservative (or reverse can be said of US U stocks). Watching this space carefully