Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view. . Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view. . .
There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks. . .VIDEO LINK - This week I have put links to two videos - one talking around bullish situation of a long term bull secular market that could last another 10 years, the second one is an analyst who got it right last year when markets were dropping. The markets have moved on, but this analyst is talking about a big crash since we around 4000 - markets have moved up 15%, but those entrenched with negative sentiments, can't get over. Every week for last 10-12 weeks he talks about a big crash coming. Again this week. Just shows how difficult is even for pros to get over one's thinking. It could crash now, but key thing is the crash should have happened at 4000, now it has already moved to 4600. . .
How are we going in 2023 - General Markets-
SP 500 is on steroids - making a new 52 week very regularly
This week it crossed 4600 - another key level
Upside - most talk is now for an all time high around 4800 - Last week I wrote it may take some time, this week it feels it will get sooner
Down side - 4300 on SP 500 now forms a big level now if markets were to go down
Market depth is improving and Russell small caps is also doing better than before, but lot of rotation still needs to happen for most punters to get benefit. The major rise was driven by some big Tech stocks till now. Russell had a very good gain on Friday
VIX staying below 15, in fact finished at 13.33, even lower than last week - is again pointing towards a bull market and this correction is just being absorbed for now
Fear and Greed indicator is at 78, below 82 of last week, Extreme Greed, reflecting stocks,
Any drops in market is being bought, so buy the dip is working great, shorts getting squeezed
Bitcoin is hovering around 30k mark. It has made a number of attempts to cross 31k, but has failed till now. Another indicator that there may be some breather before the next leg.
.
. What will happen next week - General Markets:
US markets had a very good Friday, so we should start Monday with some good gains
SP 500 now the levels are very high 4300/4800. As I have been writing last few weeks, there is a good chance of consolidation around that 4350/4550 mark in the near future. It has now touched 4600. Some calling this top. So to make another 4600 would be good
This week no major economic data - usual jobs etc. Still some earning report
The best we can hope is increase in breath. Lot of resource stocks not doing well. Junior explorers not doing well. The real gain by most will be made when this gain spreads - we wait
We can see some see-saw around 4500/4600 before a decisive break either way, probability is still for an up, but there has been very good gains, so pullback is also in the cards
. Personally: My situation is same as last week. Some long term Li stocks I continue to hold. Others playing around between U/Li/REE/Metals/Oil stock - rotating. Always looking for new stocks that have done acquisition/change in plan - there is an initial hype around it - so like to play the first stage of these stocks . . Stock/Sector specific Info:
We are now playing in 3/3.8 zone - the whole weak play was between 3.2/3.5 and finishing at low of 3.2. Last week at 3.5 finish and play of 3.3/3.6. So small drop there in trend, highs, lows - but not significant, still playing in the range
We need to finish over 3.8 now to get back to next zone
U stocks lost 4% this week - 15% down for the year. Previous week 3% loss - so back to back weekly loss
PEN is now trying to find bottom. I am watching closely - there is a chance it can hold 9s, and may make a burst towards 13/14 at some stage
Junior explorers still not doing well, most are with 10/20% of their 52 week lows. New money not yet coming into these risk assets as Interest rate still high and many big players waiting on sidelines still getting good money from yields
U future gained 40c this week to reach $56.15. So after reaching $57.75, a slow decline, last two weeks a gain - so moving in right direction
CCJ made another 52 week high this week - but that love is not flowing to other U stocks in US or ASX
I have still not bought back my U stocks including AGE - watching. I sometimes get frustrated, but one reason I am still here is I believe one day things will change.
The big rally would still be dependent on supply squeeze - still no clear data here around how much secondary market has still got. So at this it should be cautiously optimistic with improvements in other nuclear related news - reactors opening, govt support, bans etc - rather than believing a squeeze is one. The spot price at this stage may turn out to be the biggest catalyst. I am optimistic that squeeze will come at some stage and U stocks will rise, what I am not sure is about timing. If the squeeze was there, we would have seen some signs. A lot of long term contracts have been signed - usually these are 10 year or more contracts - if there was squeeze and utilities were finding difficult to source, we would have seen signs/rumblings. So more likely at this stage there is no squeeze.
. . Here is the Figures for the Week: . . . . . Video Link 1 - Optimistic
. . . Video Link 2 - Pessimistic . .
AGE Price at posting:
3.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)