Weekly Review U Stocks - 11th Aug 2023
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. As I have disclosed earlier I do hold a number of U stocks. This is the reason I include a number of other U Stocks in my analysis. In my figures, I also have performances of U stocks for 2021 and 2022 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 28 stocks.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets-
- SP 500 after making a few 52 week highs and crossing 4600, first major pullback which many expected and I was also writing about is in play
- SP 500 has lost just over 3% from its high, the downtrend from that high is into third week
- Upside - another retest of 4600 before getting to 4800 all time high
- Down side - 4300/4350 on SP 500 now forms a big level now if markets goes down further
- Market depth was improving with small caps, but it has now again got stalled - so risk on assets/explorers again not looking good
- VIX has come back below 15, it had risen shortly towards 18 but is now back in bull range
- Fear and Greed indicator is at 66, down from 82 of recent times, still in Greed zone. As many expected and I also wrote a number around early 80s is usually when markets tops - this indicator also closely playing out as previously - many use this as guideline for tops and bottoms
- Mixed data around who is buying the dip - so no clear trend
- Bitcoin has now really got stalled for several weeks. Another indicator which may be was telling the pullback could be in play
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What will happen next week - General Markets:
- US markets had a flat day with resource stocks under pressure. Li stocks could open slightly lower while U stocks slightly higher
- SP 500 now in real test of pullback. As long as 4300/4350 hold, we should be good. Anything below, drops could be un predictable
- This week FOMC minute, PMI data etc to provide some direction
- The best we can hope is increase in breath. Lot of resource stocks not doing well. Junior explorers not doing well. The real gain by most will be made when this gain spreads - we wait
- Analysts are mixed at this stage, some saying looks oversold whereas many believe we may go a bit more lower. Technicals and sentiment may drive the market in short term
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Personally: My situation is different from couple of weeks back I wrote. I have started moving a number of my stocks into U sector. Mainly taking out from my Li stocks. I have only purchased around 25% of U stocks that I want. Last 1 year there has been many false starts in U sector, so cautiously watching and adding. Also Li sector is on slight decline last few weeks - so both ways I thought it makes sense, but I could be making a wrong move, so please dyor
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- We are still playing in 3/3.8 zone - but with strength now. Last 2 days finished at 3.8
- We need to finish over 3.8 now to get back to next zone. Next level 4.6. If things don't go well, a retest around 3.3/3.4 may happen - may be one last time, not on Monday but if US U don't do well on Monday
- U stocks gained 5% this week - Very good week and also same as Mid-June when we gained 5% - there are similarities. We then reached 4.4. But unfortunately next week was very bad - 6% drop - lets hope we retain if not build on this
- BOE made a new 52 week high - so leaders making the right move for others to follow
- U future gained 50c this week to reach $56.75. So after reaching $57.75, a slow decline, last 4 weeks moving in right direction
- I still feel a real test will come - and if we can survive one big bad day and rebound - that may signal a good base. My worry is setting of euphoria - stocks go up in a hurry, and then sold down heavily. Its a small sector, few big players can play it. Consolidate, back-test and move forward - I feel only that will be sustainable. But you never know, lot of hungry people out there - we could just have a blast
- Overall macros is looking good, sentiment very good, geo-politics supporting, so in a very good state, I feel the best in recent times - it could still fizzle out and we may have to wait for the next one, but I feel we are getting closer. I am not 100% this is the one, just based on what has happened last 1 year and if general markets decline more, so cautiously optimistic
- Every week I write this, because I believe in it, so that's a constant reminder for me - "The big rally would still be dependent on supply squeeze - still no clear data here around how much secondary market has still got. So at this it should be cautiously optimistic with improvements in other nuclear related news - reactors opening, govt support, bans etc - rather than believing a squeeze is one. The spot price at this stage may turn out to be the biggest catalyst. I am optimistic that squeeze will come at some stage and U stocks will rise, what I am not sure is about timing. If the squeeze was there, we would have seen some signs. A lot of long term contracts have been signed - usually these are 10 year or more contracts - if there was squeeze and utilities were finding difficult to source, we would have seen signs/rumblings. So more likely at this stage there is no squeeze."
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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(20min delay)